《管理世界》(月刊)
唐东波
摘要：本文借助于关联产业的垂直分工理论，在投入—产出框架下分析了中国的贸易政策如何影响了国内的产业发展。研究发现，加工贸易与一般贸易的“二元”贸易政策是形成中国现阶段“二元”贸易结构的重要原因。“二元”关税政策在促进中国加工贸易迅速扩张的同时，也在一定程度上抑制了国内相关产业的发展。自由贸易以及消除加工贸易与一般贸易之间的关税差异不仅有助于降低中间品使用成本，进而促进下游产业发展，而且，上下游产业之间的“需求关联”效应也能带来上游产业的持续扩张。针对制造业行业出口附加值率的估算结果表明，中国出口技术复杂产品高涨的现象可由加工贸易的扩张来解释，但加工出口的国内附加值率显著低于一般出口，出口扩张最快的技术复杂行业，其加工出口的国内附加值率均小于 40%。这意味着，出口产品的结构升级还只是国内企业进一步参与全球垂直分工的结果，中国融入全球经济的程度相对较“浅”。
关键词：贸易政策
产业发展
加工贸易
附加值率
一、引言
ѱ Ӥ ʴ ᾱ ڼ ʁ ѱ ễ ʴ ҵ ѐ Ŀ ˥ Ừ ѱ
ࣧϨ Ȝ ꞊ Ĺ Grossman and Helpman Ŀ1991ţ LucasĿ2009ĺ Ä ᶓ Ŀȃ ʁ ѱ ̣ ᶃ ᵬ ẽ
Ȏ Ṿ Ɑ ᵹ ᶌ ѥ Ջ Ä MudambiĹ 2008ĺ ç ̐ ղ ᵴ Պ é ҂ ү Ŀ
ȃ ʁ ϐ Կ ằ Ŀᶃ ᵬ ẽ Ṿ ǥ ƴ ̇ Ӽ ﮝ ʴ ﮿ ᵑ ը
①
ﮝ Ễ ڵ ػ ﭲ ʁ ̆Ŀ ƴ ̇ ẽ ϛ ػ ʴ ﬔﯯ ѱ ʁ ̆ Ä
ᶿ ʵ ᶃ ᵬ ᾱ Ừ Ȑ ڛ ﮝ ϐ Ŀټ ̇ Ⱬ ʁ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ ʴ ǥ ẽ ƴ ̇
Ŀ ڼ ɪ څ ʁ ̆ ٬ Ŀԗ ҵ ԝ Ä
ڼ ʁ Ḡ Ŀ30 ﮧ ᴗ Ḡ ꞉ Ӽ ᶉ ﮱ ꞉ ﯴ ẽ Ả Ả ὲ Ŀ ḡ
ᾱ ʴ FDI ẢĹ LallĿ1995ţ Naughton Ŀ2007ţ Ӗ Ŀ2010ĺ Ä ݥ Ŀ ᾱ Ả ᴇ Ŀ ꞉
ﯴ ₸ Ƿ ᵲ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ç ﯧ éɟ Ả Ä ۫Ῡ ẽ ϐ Ừ Ȑ
ᶭ ʐ ʴ ʁ ѱ Ŀἥ ۫Ῡ ᶌ ﮵ ؈ ᾱ ṙ ό ʴ ƨ ό
Ջ ؾ ʶ Ä ꞉ Ӽ Ŀ ʁ Ȯ Ṥ ̇Ȏ ᾱ Ŀ ᶓ ѱ Ṧ ʄ Ṧ ử ʁ
̆ ᵲ Ṍ Ѵ ʴ ﮝ Ŀ͑ҕ ₸ Ţ Գ ѐ ʁ ̆ ̙ ằ Ҷ ~Ջ ڼ Ṹ ̐
ẽ ~ڼ Գ ѐ ࢥ ᵭ ݽ ʄ ḕ څ ү ֟ ᵹ Ĺ World BankĿ1993ĺ Ä
͑ᾲ Ŀ ﮝ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ḕ Ձ ﯴç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ڼ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ ՙ ҂ ѽ ᶿ
ʵ ů ټ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ ͫḠ Ӱ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ﮧ څ ử ڸ Ӽ ẛ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ů յ
ç ᷃ é10 ᴗ ˣ ϲ ڛ Ḡ Ŀ ҂ ݽ ڼ ﭳ Ӽ ț Ղ Ä
Ϣ Ȥ ﺽᵐ ᶿ ﮿ Ţڢ ﯧ ϛ ₸ ڼ ʄ ᵽ 10 ᴗ ѐ ү ֟ ɭ ὧ Ȃ
* ڛ ڙ ʹ ᶣ Ɽ Ԋࣧ ﭫ ҂ څ ՛ ˹ Ĺ 10JJD790009ĺ ~Ʃ ﮆ څ ࣧ ﭫ ࣧԊ ﬔᶣ
ʴ Ӽ ʈ Ԋ ϱ Ĺ 12692191100ĺ Ä ﬖLJև Ӗ ʹ ڼ ր ﬖ Ŀ Ɑ LJև
Ʀ ʹ ʴ
Ἥլ ﱣȄ ﮧ ﻺ Ä ڒ ᶓ Ŀ Ʊ Ä
- 13 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
̨ﮄ Ṧ Ꞌ Ύ Ŀ ữ ʁ ڼ ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ ﯸ
ʴ ϐ ẛ ˾ յ ţ ڢ
ϛ ĿͲ ῇ ϩ ɟ Ṵ ẽ ﭐ Ȏ ṙ ό ʴ ᷃á
ẽ ү Ɒ Ḁ ̑Ŀ͙Ɒ ẛ ç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ڼ ʁ ᴇ Ջ
ɟ ẽ ՙ ҂ ѽ ʵ ů ₸ ⱱ
ᾲ ţ ڢ ϛ ĿͲ ῇ ṧ ᾱ ҭ ȫ ẛ ʁ ̇Ȏ
ү ֟ ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ŀ ڼ Ϣ ʂ ѐ ﯴ ẛ
Ɒ ţ ڢ Ԣϛ ₸ ᶃ Ϣ ȹ Ä
ͫ Ä 1996~2009 ᴗ Ŀ ằ
ټ -115.41% ڙ 64.73%Ŀ۬ʈ ᵲ Ȉ
ǥ Ĺ ̱ 2ĺ Ŀ ݥ ټ ̇Ȏ ᾱ Ȉ ₸
ằ څ Ä
ﹽ
ᾱ ڼ ա ˣ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ Ձ Ŀ
ʁ ᾱ ằ Ḡ ᾿ ʁ ~ᵂ ʁ Վ ǡ
ﭲ ʁ ̆ ᵲ Ĺ ̱ 3ĺ Ŀ ĿḠ ᾿ ʁ ʴ ʁ
Վ ǡ ֟ᾱ ằ څ Ä ݥ Ŀ ؞ ̙Ŀ
Һ ﮵ ؈ ꜞ ỹ څ ẏ ằ Ŀ ⱥ
~ ﬗⱥ ~ ⱥ
ﯴ ᴓ ằ ằ Ĺ ̱ 4ĺ Ŀ ʁ ү
二、中国对外贸易的结构
特征与比较优势
ʁ ᴇ ѱ ễ ʴ ѐ ү ֟ ᾱ ỹ
ࢩ ḕ Ŀ ʁ Ừ ᶃ ᵬ ᾱ ѱ
Ä ᶿ 1 ꞈ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ᾱ ټ 1996 ᴗ
1510.50 ᾿ Ӽ 2009 ᴗ 12015.34 ᾿
Ŀᴗ ӓ ễ ǥ ﭲ 16%Ŀѐ ү ֟ ᶃ Ϩ ѐ ү
֟ ᾱ ﯣ ṩ ټ 2.77% Ӽ 8.79% Ä
ݥ Ŀᾱ ɭ ₮ ڛ ࣸ ễ Ɑ Ŀ ʁ ڼ ᾱ
Ϣ Ȥ Ձ ү ẛ ﮧ ᵼ Ä
图2中国对外贸易的地区特征及外资对于顺差的重要作用
ټ ڼ ᾱ ʁ ᴇ Ϣ Ȥ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ۬ʈ ᵲ Կ
ᶓ ҭ ẛ ػ Ä ᶿ 2 ꞈ Ŀ۬ʈ ᵲ ʁ
ѐ ү ֟ᾱ ﯣ ỹ 90% Ӽ Ŀ ᴇ ὗ ᵲ
څ ﮧ 10% ᴇ Ä ҂ Ŀ Ϣ ʂ ʁ
̇Ȏ ẽ ̙֚ Ҧ῟ Ջ ɟ Ä Ͳ ῇ Ŀ
ƻ ǵ Ӥ ؞ Ŀ۬ʈ ѱ ᵲ ҵ Ả
ⱪ ʈ ͏ ṧ Ŀꜛ ڛ ᴉ Ȧ ϐ ᴇ ὗ ᵲ
Ȉ ⱽ ʴ ̇Ȏ Ŀѐ Ӥ ʁ
ᾱ ﯲ Ừ Գ Ä ₸ FDI
᷃Ŀ ѐ ү ֟ᾱ ﻲ ẛ Ḡ
Ţ ҭ Ḡ Ṧ ᴗ ì ʁ ؈ ᴗ ̮î Ä
图3中国贸易顺差的主要来源地各自所占总顺差比例
Ţ
؈ ᴗ ̮î Ä
1998~1999
ᴗ ڼ ᾿ ᾱ ҭ Ḡ
CEIC
Ŀ ҭ ӓ Ḡ Ṧ ᴗ ì ʁ
图4部分行业贸易顺差的变化特征
图1中国出口规模及进出口占世界比例
Ţ ﯴ ɰ Ṍ ֟ Ѻ ؈ ì
ʁ
ῷ ѱ ﯴ Ṍ î Ĺ GB/
Ţ ҭ Ḡ Ṧ ᴗ ì ʁ ؈ ᴗ ̮î Ä Ŀ2001 ᴗ ʴ 2000 ᴗ
T4754-2003ĺ Ŀﯴ ҭ ѱ HS ᾋ ʈ
ҭ Ḡ ĿHS ﹽ ȃ
ɟ
Ϩ ѐ ֟ ҭ 2000 ᴗ ʴ 1999 ᴗ ҭ ,1998 ᴗ ҭ
ᵹ
1997 ᴗ ʴ
1998ĺ ʴ ì ʁ ᾱ ѱ ؈ ᴗ ̮î
ҭ Ḡ ì ʁ ڼ ѱ ؈ ᴗ ̮îĹ
1999 ᴗ ҭ ϻ ӓ Ä
2009ĺ Ä ﮄ ػ Ţ Ä
Ĺ
- 14 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
۫ ɢ ắ ϐ ﮝ ĿͲ ῇ ̿ᶦ
֟ᾱ ѱ Ṧ ẛ ´ Կ ẽ ʄ ử Ä
ἥ Ŀټ ڼ ᾱ ۫ꜟ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ1996~2009 ᴗ Ŀ̇
Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ү ֟ᾱ ṩ ỹ 50% Ŀ
Ҵ څ ᾱ ằ ꞉ ڛ ̇Ȏ ᾱ Ĺ ̱ 5ĺ Ä ꞉
Ӽ Ŀ ʁ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ễ FDI څ ɭ ₮ Ἧ
᷃῟ Ջ ɟ Ä ₸ Ŀ ʄ ѐ ֟څ
ẏ ̙ Ŀ ṧ ʁ Ջ ڼ Ṹ ̐ ḹ ﮝ Ṱ ѐ ﯴ
ʴ ̇Ȏ ẽ Ŀᶓ ˣ ̿ẽ ү ֟ը Ϩ ȃ Ä
ᶃ ᵬ Ȏ ʴ ẽ ᶭ Ŀ֭ʁ ȕ
̿ ʁ Ϩ ç ؎ ﬖé Ŀԍ Ŀ ʁ ڼ
ᾱ Ừ Ȑ ˃ څ ử ڸ Ӽ ɰ Ȑ
Ѧ ү ֟ ՟ ﯱ Ả ὲ ②Ä
ẍ Ȃ Ɑ ؞ RCA ﹺ ѐ ﯴ ɢ ắ Ŀ
ۢ ʁ ڼ ᾱ ﮝ Ä ᶿ 6 ꞈ Ŀˋ
ʴ ꞈ 1994 ᴗ ʴ 2008 ᴗ RCA Ŀ
ӏ i 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙ Կ ﯸ ϐ ɳ
ԍ ƺ ﭫ ꞈ Ä Գ Ŀڢ Ⅰա Չ ӏ
RCA>0Ŀ ﭞ ꜞ ҵ ϐ Ŀ ṙ Ŀڢ Ⅲա Չ
ӏ ꜞ ﯩ ϐ ἇ ţ ڢ Ⅱա Չ Ŀ
ӏ i 1994 ᴗ RCA<0Ŀ 2008 ᴗ RCA>0Ŀԍ ̱
ӏ i 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙ѱ Ṧ ẛ ϐ ἇ ՟
ϐ Ŀڢ Ⅳա Չ ӏ nj ʨ Ջ ۢĿ
45°
ϐ ϐ ἇ Ä ﭡ Ŀڒ ӏ ﯩ
i
ҭ ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ ﯲ Ừ Ȃ ᵛ Ŀ ʁ ڼ
ᾱ ۬ʈ ᵲ Ŀ ᾱ ằ ڼ ա
ﭲ ʁ ̆ ᵲ Ä ݥ Ŀ FDI ẽ
ՙ Ŀ ʁ ڼ ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ ừ Ձ ﻮ ᾱ
̇Ȏ ᾱ ҩ Ä ۫Ῡ Ŀ ﻮ ᾱ
ẛ ᴇ Ŀ ʁ ᴇ ȥ ̙ ү ֟Ɠ ~ո
Ṍ ḹ ﮝ ῟ ﯱ ẽ Ä ἥ ۫Ῡ Ŀ
̇Ȏ ᾱ ἤ Ŀ ṧ ʁ Ջ ڼ Ṹ ̐ḹ ﮝ Ṱ
ʴ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﮧ Ả Ŀ ʄ ѐ ֟ǥ ƴ ̇
̙ ѐ ﯴ ̇Ȏ Ŀᶓ ˣ ՟ ʈ ү ֟ ց ~
῟ ﯱ ẽ Ä
Պ Ӽ Ɑ Ŀ ꞈ ƺ ӏ ϐ ̹ ĿՋ ۢĿ
45°Պ ﮿ ӏ ϐ ̫₵ Ä ڢ Ŀڒ ӏ
inj ʨ ﯩ 45°Պ Ӽ Ɑ Ŀ ꞈ 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙ᴇ
ƺ ӏ ϐ ؘ Ŀ Ɑ ؚ Ҷ
ṗ 45°Պ Ŀ ƺ ӏ ϐ څ Ä
Ͳ ῇ Ձ Ŀ 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙Ŀ ʁ ڼ ᾱ
ꜞ ҵ ϐ ﭬ ﯱ ẽ Ḕ Ϣ ἃ
Ĺ 46ĺ ~ﮝ ỻ ỻ Ṍ Ĺ 16Ŀ20ĺ ~ ǵ Ṍ
Ĺ 42ĺ ~ Ṍ Ĺ 57Ŀ61Ŀ62Ŀ63Ŀ65ĺ ~ ᶶ Ṍ
Ĺ 67ĺ ~ո Ṍ Ĺ 64ĺ ~ ҵ ṌĹ 95ĺ ʴ ̆ҵ ṌĹ 94ĺ
ţ ﯩ ϐ ἇ ﭬ ﯱ ẽ ₸ ʢ ֚ʢ Ṍ ẽ
Ĺ 88ĺ ~ḁ Ĺ 26Ŀ74ĺ ~ ⱥ Ĺ 90ĺ ~
ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ ﮿ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ ϐ
₸ Ƅ Կ ů ү ֟
ᴉ ϻ ₸ Ƅ ڛ ẛ Կ ů Ձ ѱ ҂
ؘ ڛ Ϣ ό ③Ä ڼ ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ϩ ̮
Ջ Ĺ 37ĺ ʴ ἃ Ĺ 39ĺ Ä
④
ᵱ Պ ۫ử ս Ὠ ʴ ϙ Ҷ ՛ ӓ Ŀԍ ʁ ڼ
ᾱ ϐ Ϣ Ȥ ϐ ڰ Ŀ ݥ 1994 ᴗ Ջ
Ŀ2008 ᴗ ڼ ᾱ Ӽ Ձ ڛ Ȉ ҵ ϐ
Ä ἥ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ Ӱ ڙ ӏ ϐ ἇ
ϐ Ŀϐ ﭬ ﯱ Ḕ Ỗ Ẏ Ἑ ƴ ̴Ĺ 87ĺ ~
Balassa ʴ
BauwensĹ 1988ĺ ү Կ ﯸ ϐ Ĺ Revealed
Comparative Advantage ĿRCAĺ Ƽ ᴛ Ŀấ ẛ ﹽ ȃ
ӏ ѐ ү ֟ᾱ ϐ Ä
93
94
69
58
92
8396
66
50
89
86
13
73
81
Ⅱ
Ⅰ
43
68
21
82
54
84
72
56
76
44
97
48
87
33
17
52
28
78
31
91
35
71
19
22
37
30
25
24
90
14
79
39
45
80
74
41 15
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
88
27
12
75
47
26
图5出口中的加工贸易占比及加工顺差在总顺差中的主导地位
Ţ2009 ᴗ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ҭ Ḡ CEIC ҭ ֨Ŀ Processing and As⁃
sembling ʴ Processing with Imported Materials Ջ ̇ ڛ ڙ Ŀ ҭ ӓ Ḡ
ì ʁ ؈ ᴗ ̮îĹ 2009~2010ĺ Ä
6中国进出口贸易显性比较优势（ RCA）的动态特征
图
Ţ ȃ ﭫ ڼ
HS ᾋ ʪ Ä Պ ᵾ ᴇ ʑ Ţ
16 20 42 46 57 61~65 67
~
~
~
~
~
~
ʴ
95
Ä ҭ Ḡ ì ʁ ڼ ѱ ؈
ᴗ ̮îĹ
1996ĺ ʴ ì ʁ ᾱ ѱ ؈ ᴗ ̮îĹ 2009ĺ Ä
- 15 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
ǝ Ĺ 72Ŀ73ĺ ~ ց Ἑ ƴ ̴Ĺ 84ĺ
ʴ ﮷ Ɣ ﮝ Ϣ Ȥ Ĺ 89ĺ ῟ ﯱ ᾱ
Ä ﭞ Ɑ ĿȲ ỻ ʂ ꞉ ἃ ṌĹ 19Ŀ12Ŀ22ĺ ~ Ạ
Ĺ 24ĺ Ṍ ӏ Ĺ 75Ŀ80Ŀ25Ŀ79Ŀ27ĺ
̹ ẛ ϐ Ä Ϣ ʂ ڰ ử ڸ
Ӽ ẛ RodrikĹ 2006ĺ ~Yang Ĺ 2009ĺ Amiti ʴ
FreundĹ 2010ĺ ᶣ ɟ ʁ ү ֟ ᾱ ѱ Ṧ Ϣ
ᶃ Ể Ŀ Ể ѐ ү ̿ Ể ṧ ₳
Ἑ Ŀ ﭞ C =YqĿϢ ʶ Ϙ ̴ Ţ
0
μYq
p
(1- )
Ŀ L =
Y
μ Yq
w
X=
Ӽ ꜟ Ȅ ү ẛ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ẽ ү Ĺ Yqĺ
̙ Ĺ Xĺ ḹ ﮝ Ĺ L ĺ ࢥ ᵭ ̙ ɟ ﹺ Ä ѐ Ŀ Y
Y
ẽ Ể ᶃ Ŀӓ ˌ Ɑ ﮄ ػ Ừ
ẽ ̐Ƿ Ŀ c=qĿɐ Ţ
⑤
Ȥ ɢ ﭫ Ä
q=σp w1 - μ
μ
三、“二元”贸易政策对国内
ṙ Ӽ ꜟ Ŀԍ ڛ ʁ ᴇ ̙ Ĺ Xĺ ࢥ ᵭ ʔ Ţ
p=σ-1 μq1 μw(μ - 1) μ
产业发展的影响机制
խ ʁ Ӥ ѱ ṙ ό Ḁ ̑ ﮿ Ŀʁ ᴇ ѱ
ﮝ ԍ ẍ څ ẽ ŢӼ ẽ Ĺ Xĺ ʴ ﮿ ẽ
Ĺ Yĺ Ŀ ȓ ̙ Ŀˣ ꜛ ̙ ẽ
ԍ ̱Ŀ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ڼ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ ᵹ Ӑ
﮿ ẽ ⱪ ẽ ̐Ƿ ʴ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ ϻ Ä
（二）中间品供给
⑥Ä Ϣ ʶ ʁ ڼ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ʴ Ể Ϣ Ȥ
ʁ ᴇ Ể ̙ ȓ Ȅ Ѐ Ḡ Ӽ ẽ
Ĺ Xĺ Ŀ Ɑ ԍ ʑ ɟ ڼ ᾱ ̐ Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ѐ
֟Ä ҕ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ Ĺ Xĺ ٬ ĿͲ ῇ ̎ڰ ᷃
ĿͲ ῇ ԍ Okuno-FujiwaraĹ 1988ĺ ~Murphy
Ĺ 1989ĺ ʴ VenablesĹ 1996ĺ Ә Ӽ Ŀѐ ̎ڰ ʁ
ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ẽ ̙ ӓ ԍ ᾱ Ŀݥ Ӽ ﮿
ẽ ḹ ﮝ Ṱ Ừ Կ ằ Ä ʄ Ɒ ẽ
̙ ᷃á ẽ ү ɟ Ṵ ճ ĿͲ ῇ ̿ ﭫ ϣ ç ﯧ é
Ѐ ḹ ﮝ Ĺ L ĺ Ŀݥ ɭ ₮ Ŀḹ ﮝ ࢥ
X
ᵭ ẽ ү X Պ ﯸ ʔ Ŀ ﭞ ĿӼ ẽ ﭬ ﯱ
ṧ ₳ ʔ ԍ ﮿ ﯲ ꜟ Ţ
π=px- ( +Δ) x-f
⑦
ᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ Ä
w
a
（一）中间品需求
ĿΔ ʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ể Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ȏ ᶣ ̙
ᶣ ӓ Ȏ ằ Ҷ Ŀx ƺ ﭬ ﯱ ẽ ү ϻ Ŀa
ﮄ ػ ẽ ү ࢥ ḹ ﮝ ᷃Ŀ f ̙ ẽ ɒ ڰ
᷃Ä ₴ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ȧ ǥ Ŀ ᵐ
Һ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ŀﭞ Ɑ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
̎ⱥ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ᶃ ݥ ɭ ₮ Ŀ
ԗ ό ₸ ẽ Ể ₸ Ể ӓ ̐Ƿ ϔ ۫Ŀƺ
ẽ ẽ ү YĿ ʁ ᴇ ̐Ƿ qÄ Y ԍ ᾱ
Ŀq Ễ ẏ Ŀ ʁ Ể ̐Ƿ ̇Ӽ ʁ ᴇ
Ä
ẽ ᶃ ̙ nx=X+Δ Ŀn ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
x
ẽ Y ﭬ ﯱ ꜛ ḹ ﮝ L ʴ ̙
Y
ẏ ĿΔ ̙ ү ֟ ẏ Ŀ Ɒ Ŀἦ Δ =b/
x
x
X ѐ ﯴ ẽ Ӑ Ả Ŀ Ŀḹ ﮝ Ȏ wĿ ̙ ̐Ƿ
pĿY ẽ ﭬ ﯱ ﯴ ԍ ᶿ ﮿ ɟ ﹺ
Ţ
pÄ ҭ ẽ ү x Ừ Ϙ
̴Ŀԍ ڛ ᶿ ﮿ ̐Ƿ Ӑ ڰ ۫ử Ţ
a(w+Δ)
p=
μ
1 - μ
Y
1+ 1 nε
x =
Ma Y AX L
s.t. pX+wL C
Ӽ ꜟ Ŀε ̐Ƿ ࢥ ᵭ ﮌ ﯸ Ä ࢥ ᵭ
̐Ƿ ﮌ ﯸ Ŀε ᵹ Ӑ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ä
Cournot ₮ ꜟ ﮿ Ŀʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ X=
Y
0
Ŀ0≤μ≤1Ä ﺿ ؎ Ϙ ̴Ŀ
ԍ pX=μC ĿwL =Ĺ 1-μĺ C Ŀ Ţ
0
Y
0
1-μ
(1-μ)1-
μ
p w1-μ
μ
æ(1-μ)C ö
AC μ
=
μ
μ
μYq/pĿү ֟ࢥ ᵭ Δ Ŀ ݥ ﮿ ẽ ẽ ẏ Y Ŀ
æ
μC
p
ö
÷
ø
0
0
x
Y=Açè
0
ç
ç
÷
÷
ᶵ ´ │ε│=1Ä ؚ Ӽ ẽ ̙
ࢥ ᵭ ̐Ƿ ﮌ ﯸ Ѐ ᵹ Ӑ ﮿ ẽ Ŀ
ү ֟ࢥ ᵭ څ խ ԗ ɟ ⑧Ä
w
è
ø
ҭ ﭞ Ŀԍ ѐ ڛ ڙ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ﮄ ػ ẽ ү Ừ
ﭲ ꜟ Ţ
c= C
ѐ Ŀڒ Ӽ ẽ ѐ ү ṉ Ɑ Ŀπ=0Ŀ
0
Y
=σp w1-μ
μ
1-μĺ 1-μÄ ̎ڰ Ŀ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ
Ŀσ=1/AμĹ
Ϣ ʶ
nx=X+Δ
ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ X=μYq/pĿ
μ
x
- 16 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
=MPL(Lˉ -LD)
w+Δ
∗
ү ֟ࢥ ᵭ Δ =b/pĿ ̐Ƿ ϻ ӓ Ừ ɟ ﹺ ꜟ Ţ
x
p=a(w+Δ) + fnp μYq b
Ӽ ɟ ẏ ʴ ϻ ӓ ẏ ۫ ử ɟ ﹺ ۢ ẛ
Ӽ ẽ ӓ ˌ Ɑ Ŀ ̙ Ể ӓ ˌ ̐Ƿ p
ʴ Ӽ ẽ ˹ n ɭ ὧ Ŀѐ ṙ
Ţ
(
+ )
ĿΔ Ễ ẏ Ŀ ꞈ ﮿ ẽ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ
ẽ ̙ Ȏ ằ Ҷ Ä Ʃ ʶ ʔ
ﮄ ﯸ ԍ ∂w/∂Yq>0Ŀ ﮿ ẽ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ
ϻ w Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ȝ Ӑ ڰ ẽ Yq ʔ Ä
（三）均衡分析
∗
μYq+b
f
a(w+Δ)
ﺿ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ ȓ Ȅ ʔ Ŀἦ w=w
Ĺ Yqĺ ĿṴ Ṭ Ţ
n=
Ŀ p=
f
μYq+b
1-
a w Yq
( ( ) +Δ)
p=σ-1 μq1 μw Yq (μ-1) μĿ p=
( )
ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ֑ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ̙ç ࢥ
ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ʴ ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ éճ Ä ۫
Ῡ Ŀ﮿ ẽ Ȉ ǥ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ﭿ Ḡ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ
ḕ Ŀѐ ⱽ Ȉ ﮧ ̙ ẽ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ
ţ ἥ ۫Ῡ Ŀ Ӽ ẽ ẏ ̇Ŀ Ể
̇Ӂ ̿ ṧ ﮿ ẽ Ȉ ̐Ƿ ڛ
̙ ȓ Ȅ Ä
f
1-
μYq+b
ҕ ࢥ ᵭ ɟ ﹺ ٬ Ŀﭞ ﯩ ࢥ ᵭ ʔ ֑ ẛ ̙
Ể ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ̙ ɟ ﹺ
Ŀ
0≤μ≤1 ݥ ∂w/∂Yq>0Ŀ ﭞ Ŀࢥ ᵭ ᵴ Պ p
Ĺ Yqĺ ՟
D
﮿
ս Ä ꞉ Ӽ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ̇ Ɑ Ŀ
ڼ ҕ ࢥ ᵭ ʴ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ Ӽ Ŀټ ﮿
ẽ ᴉ Ȧ ƫ ̙ ̐Ƿ ᵱ ﮿ ͉Ä
ࢥ ү ₸ Ŀ Ӽ Ɒ ʁ ᴇ ̙
ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ʄ ǥ Ŀټ ᵐ Һ ẛ ѐ ֟ ՙ Ŀ
ؚ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ۫Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ
̐Ƿ p≤pÄ ₴ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ ₸ ϵ Ŀ͑ᾲ Ŀ
Ḡ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ̐Ƿ p ὲ pĿ
ԍ ᵐ Һ ѐ ֟Ŀټ ᶃ ʁ ᴇ Ể ﯣ Ŀﭞ Ɑ
Ӽ ẏ Ţ
̙ ȓ Ȅ ۫ử Ŀڒ ̙ ѐ ֟
Ɑ ĿḠ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ᵹ Ӑ
﮿
ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ څ խ Ä ȅ ҭ Ӽ ₮ ﯱ ʄ
ử ĿͲ ῇ Ϸ Ձ Ŀᶿ ʂ Ӽ ẽ ˹ Ĺ nĺ ɒ
ڰ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ễ ̿ﭿ Ḡ Ȏ ʴ
Ừ Ӽ Ŀﭞ Ɑ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ Պ pĹ Yqĺ ՟ Ӽ ս Ä
S
μYq+bæ
a(w+Δ)ö
ڏ ₸ ĿӼ ẽ ˹ Ĺ nĺ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
Ĺ Yqĺ ễ ̇Ŀ Ể ̇Ӂ ̿ ʁ ᴇ
̙ Ể ̐Ƿ ᵱ ﮿ ͉Ä ﭞ Ŀ ʶ Ӱ Ŀ﮿ ẽ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ̙ừ Ձç Uéﯱ ɟ ﹺ Ä
Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ̙ ӓ ˌ ɟ ﹺ ᶿ 7 ꞈ Ŀ Ŀ
ꞈ Ӽ ẽ ẽ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ŀˋ
ꞈ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ Ä ՟ ﮿ ս D ᵴ Պ
n=
ç1-
÷
ˉ
p
f
è
ø
ʶ Ӽ ɟ ʁ ᴇ ̙ Ể ࢥ ᵭ ʴ ȓ Ȅ
Ɒ ĿͲ ῇ Ձ Ŀʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ừ Ĺ w Ĺ w+Δĺ ĺ
Ể ӓ ˌ ʲ ﬖ ẏ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀ ﻮ ӓ ˌ
Ḁ ̑ᴇ ҂ ᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ŀ
Ͳ ῇ ࢥ ѐ ҂ ʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ể Ȏ Ӑ ڰ Ä
ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ Ŀ ḹ ﮝ ࢥ ᵭ Ĺ Lĺ
p
S ᵴ
Պ
Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ḹ ﮝ ࢥ ᵭ Ĺ L ĺ ẽ ḹ ﮝ ࢥ ᵭ
D
ʴ Ŀ Ӽ Ɒ Ŀ Ţ
E3
H
(1-μ)Yq w +nax
ˉ
L =L +L =
P
D
Y
X
ѐ ĿͲ ῇ ̎ڰ ʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ể Ȏ
ڰ ử ڸ ﯸ Ŀ ﭞ Ȏ ẽ ﮌ ﯸ εwĿYqʴ εw+Δ ĿYqӓ խ
1Ä ĿӼ ẽ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ ڼ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
ﮌ ﯸ ﹺ ࢥ ڰ ἡ ﯸ ĿͲ ῇ ⱥ ڰ 1/2<
E2
E1
εw+ΔĿYq<1Ŀ ﭞ Ŀᶵ ´ ∂L /∂Yq>0Ä ₴ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ
D ᵴ
Պ
D
Yq1
Yq2
ẽ ḹ ﮝ ẽ Ὠ ̫ɭ ὧ Ŀ
Ȏ ϻ ḹ ﮝ ẽ Ὠ Ţ
Yq
图7
均衡分析
- 17 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
̙ Ĺ Xĺ ʁ ᴇ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ Պ Ŀç Uéﯱ S ᵴ Պ ̙
Ĺ Xĺ ʁ ᴇ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ Պ Ŀ ϻ Պ P ڼ ʁ ᴇ ̙
ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ä
ڒ ʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ػ E ả Ɑ ĿӼ ẽ
2
ѐ ᷃ ﯲ Ừ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ
̙ ɟ Ṵ ճ ̿ﭿ Ḡ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ỹ ࢩ ḕ
Ŀ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ ϻ Ӽ ꜛ ڛ Ể ṧ ₳
Ɒ ₮ ﯱ ȓ ࢥ ӓ ˌ ĿͲ ῇ Գ Ԁ ὥ
ڒ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ p Ȧ ǥ Ɑ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
ẽ ̙ ﮿ ẽ ᷃ Ŀ ꜛ ڛ Ӽ ﮿
Ἑ Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ ̿ Ṽ E ﭫ Ä
1
（四）贸易政策的影响
ẽ Ể ṧ ₳ Ŀ ᶓ Ȃ ẽ Yq Ŀꜛ
ȅ ҭ Ӽ Ɒ Ḁ ̑ĿͲ ῇ ᴉ Ȧ ϐ ʨ ϣ Ձ ﯴ
1
ڛ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ ػ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ Պ
Ĺ S ᵴ Պĺ Ӽ Ä ἥ ۫Ῡ Ŀڒ ʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ɭ ₮ ϐ
խ Ŀ ᶿ Yq→0 Ɑ Ŀp→∞Ŀ ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ᶧ ڒ ﮿ ẽ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ۼ Ễ խ Ɑ Ŀȓ Ȅ ᵴ ՊĹ S ᵴ Պĺ ػ ᵴ
ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ Ӽ Ä ڒ ᶓ Ŀ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ
ç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ Ä
Գ Ŀ ﻮ ᾱ ﯲ ﮿ Ŀᾱ Ả ɟ
̿ ϔ ՙ ѐ ֟ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ 7 ϻ Պ P
ҵ ػ ĺ Ŀѐ Ể ӓ ˌ Ä ڼ
̙ ɟ ꜛ ڛ ϻ Պ P ՟ Ӽ ﮝ ĿS ᵴ Պ D
ᵴ Պ ỹ Ä Կ ᶓ Ŀڒ ʁ ᴇ Ể ﯩ ӓ ˌ ﭫ E3
ễ Ŀ ᶓ Ȃ ẽ Yq Ŀꜛ ڛ ˣ S ᵴ Պ
2
ػ D ᵴ Պ Ӽ ⑨Ä ˣ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ ڛ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ ՊĹ S
ᵴ
Ɑ Ŀɟ ̿ꜛ ڛ ӓ ˌ ﭫ E ՟ ﮝ Ŀ﮿ ẽ
3
Պĺ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ ﯲ Ừ ӓ ˌ E ﭫ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ﮿ ͉Ŀ ʄ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ
ẽ ̿Ջ ﷺ Ŀԍ ̱Ŀﭞ Ɑ ̙ ɟ
Ả ṧ ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ä
1
ʴ E ﭫ Ä
2
ڒ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ػ H ﭫ ả Ɑ Ŀ ̙
ѐ ֟̐Ƿ p Կ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ Ể ̐Ƿ pĿ
ﭞ Ŀʁ ᴇ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ᶃ ѐ ֟ ﮁ Ŀﭞ Ɑ ʁ
ﭡ Ŀڼ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ٬ Ŀ ̙ ѐ ֟ ɟ
ե ̫ ﭿ Ḡ ᶃ Ջ ۢ ճ ʂ Ä ҵ Ŀ ڼ ѐ ֟
ᴇ Ể ̿ Ṽ ӓ ˌ E Ä ƺ ӓ ˌ ﭬ ﯱ
̙ ɟ ﮿ ͉̿ E ﭫ Ŀڼ ﮿ ẽ
3
3
₸ Ŀ ӓ ˌ ̐Ƿ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ pĿʁ ᴇ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ Ӽ Ŀڏ ﭞ Ɑ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ȓ Ȅ ᴉ Ṱ
Ӽ ẽ ˹ Ĺ nĺ ᵹ Ӑ ɒ ڰ ᷃Ĺ fĺ ʴ
֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ä ݥ Ŀ ʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
ѐ
ᶬ ᶓ Չ Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ ᶬ E ﭫ Ӑ ڰ Ŀ ڙ ɟ ե ̫
3
⑩
ꜛ ڛ ϻ Պ P ﮿ ͉ E ﭫ Ɑ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ể Ӽ ﮿ ɟ
2
Ĺ Yqĺ ϐ խ Ŀﺿ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ĿӼ ẽ Չ
Ṵ ճ ̿ ꜛ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ỹ ࢩ ḕ Ŀﺿ Ӽ Ɒ Ŀ
˹ ẽ ᶛ ʁ ᴇ ̙
Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ү ϻ ʴ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ̐Ƿ ̿ Ṽ E ﭫ Ä
1
ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ŀԍ ̱Ŀ E ₸ ڰ
ڒ ᶓ Ŀᾱ Ả ԍ ڼ ﮿ ẽ ⱥ
ڰ Ŀﭞ Ɑ ɟ Ả ̿ƻ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
Ể ̐Ƿ qĿ Ϣ ʂ ₸ Ŀq ̇̿ ʁ ᴇ
̙ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ ՟ Ӽ ﮝ Ŀ Ɑ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ
ՊĹ S ᵴ Պĺ ỹ Ŀټ ﯲ Ɒ ԍ Ӱ ڙ Ŀԗ ό
ѱ ﯩ E ₸ E Ŀ ڼ ʁ ᴇ ᾱ
3
ӓ ˌ Ä
ڒ ᶓ Ŀ H ﭫ ả ƴ Ѣ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ڰ
̐ὲ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ pĿﭞ Ɑ ĿӼ ﮿ ẽ ̙
ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ éճ ̿ ꜛ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ Ӽ Ŀ
﮿ ẽ ḕ ԍ ʄ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ꜛ
̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ࢩ ﮿ ͉Ŀᶿ ﭞ ۢƩ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ể ӓ ˌ
1
3
Ả ӓ ṧ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ E ﭫ ʴ E3
1
̿ﭲ ڙ E ﭫ Ä ڏ ₸ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ࢩ Ӽ
ﭫ ӓ ՟ ﮝ ĺ Ä Ŀڒ D ᵴ Պ ՟ Ӽ ﮝ ꜛ
2
̿ ⱽ Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ Ŀѐ ̙
ӓ ˌ ټ E ﭫ H ﭫ Ɑ ĿӼ ﮿ ẽ ̙
3
ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ѐ ﮿ ͉Ŀ ꜛ ڛ ﮿ ẽ
ɟ Ṵ ճ ̿ﭿ Ḡ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ḕ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ
ࢩ ḕ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀӓ ˌ E ڰ Ä
Ӽ ẽ ̐Ƿ ̿ Ṽ ӓ ˌ ػ E ﭫ Ä
2
1
꞉ Ӽ Ŀ E ﭫ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
2
四、出口附加值率：方法、
数据与结果
̙ ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ խ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ŀʁ ᴇ ﮿
ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ﭲ ڙ Ἅ Ϩ Ŀ Ӽ ẽ ɭ ₮
Ȧ څ Ŀꜛ ڛ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ӥ ꜞ ﮿
ẽ ࢥ ᵭ ̐Ƿ Ĺ S ᵴ Պ ټ Ӽ D ᵴ Պ Ջ ͏ĺ Ŀ
Ͳ ῇ Ӱ ڙ Ŀ ʁ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ç ﯧ éɟ Ả
﮿ ڛ ẛ ࣸ Ŀݥ ү ֟ẽ Ȥ Ừ ѱ Ṧ ẛ
- 18 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
表
̙ BEC ᾋ
1 BEC对中间品的定义
´ Կ ʄ ử Ŀڏ ₸ Ŀ ﻮ ᾱ Ջ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ
ƴ ̇Ὠ ₸ Ƅ ᾱ ḕ Ӽ ᴅ ů ڼ ʲ
ʑ
ﬖ
111
121
21
Ⱳ
Ⱳ
ʴ
ʴ
ἃ ĿҮ Ŀ Ȏ
ἃ Ŀ̇Ȏ Ŀ Ȏ
ﭳ ﻃ Ŀ̿ ϔ Ӑ ڰ ẛ Ջ ɟ ẽ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ Ӽ Ⱬ
ử ڸ Ä ﭞ Ŀ ϛ ̿ѐ ȫ ȃ ﯴ ﹽ ᾱ ۫ꜟ ү
֟ƴ ̇ ϻ Ä
ؘἥ ɰ Ṍ Ȏ ĿҮ
ؘἥ ɰ Ṍ Ȏ
ᶔ ἃ ʴ ₳ ĿҮ
22
Ŀ̇Ȏ
31
322
42
ᶔ ἃ ʴ ₳ Ŀ̇ȎĹ Ḕ ĺ
ỻ Ĺ ⱥ Һ ĺ Ἑ ؎ ̴
ⱥ Ἑ ؎ ̴
（一）方法
Hummels Ĺ 2001ĺ ү ﭐ Ĺ Vertical Spe⁃
cializationĺ Ƽ ᴛ ճ ڸ ẏ ẛ Ȃ ʁ ̆ ᵲ ʄ ᾱ
̣ ᶃ ᵬ ẽ Ṿ ү Ջ ڼ ț Ղ Ä ȅ ҭ Hummels
Ĺ 2001ĺ ڰ Ŀԍ ڛ ᶿ ﮿ ȫ ȕ ꜟ Ţ
53
᷃ ẽ ү Ἧẏ Ä Ŀﹽ ̇ Ȏ ᾱ
ﻮ ᾱ HS ᾋ ѐ ү ֟ ҭ Ḡ
ʁ ʈ ɟ ᾱ ؈ ҭ ֨Ĺ CCTSĿChina Cus⁃
toms Trade Statisticsĺ Ä ȅ ҭ BEC HS ڼ
ĿͲ ῇ ԍ ꞊ ڛ ѐ ֟ ̙
ҭ Ä Ừ ι Ȃ ﯴ ᾱ ҭ Ɑ ĿͲ
ῇ ̿ HS ᾋ ѐ ү ֟ ҭ ﺿ HS I/O
ڼ Գ ɰ ڙ Ⅱ Ṍ ῄ Ŀᶓ ˣ ȅ
ҭ ᷃ẽ ү ῄ Ṍ ﮁ ᾋ ɟ ﹺ ̿ Ⅱ
Ṍ ῄ ̇ ڙ Ⅰ Ṍ Ä
VS
X
,VS= çæ X ÷ö⋅M I
VSS=
èY ø
Ӽ ꜟ ĿM ѐ ֟ ̙ ̐ ĿY ڼ ẽ ү ̐ ĿX
I
ү ֟ẽ ̐ Ä VS ֑ ẛ ү ֟ ȥ ̙ ̐ Ŀ
VSS ꞈ ﮄ ػ ү ֟ ʁ ƴ ̇ ﯣ Ŀ1-VSS ڼ
ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ä
ẛ ȫ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʴ ﻮ ᾱ ү ֟ƴ ̇ Ὠ ĿͲ ῇ
Գ ࢥ ꞊ ѐ ֟ ̙ Ä ̇Ȏ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ﮿ Ŀ ѐ
֟ ἃ ӓ ڜ ̇Ȏ ѐ ֟₢ ﮿ Ŀ ﺿ ɭ ڰ ῄ ү ֟ẽ
ẽ Ŀ ᴉ ʁ ᴇ ἃ Ä ڒ ̇Ȏ Ừ
ﻶ Ừ Ừ ˣ Ŀ յ ẽ ڵ ү ֟Ŀݥ ү ֟Ɑ ڜ
ʈ ɟ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ᾱ ₮ ꜟ Ä ﭞ Ŀڼ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ٬ Ŀ
ڼ ѐ ֟ ̙ ԍ ʄ ᾱ ₮ ﯱ ѐ ﯴ ꞊ Ä
ﯴ ̙ ᷃ẽ ү Ἧẏ ɟ ﹺ
ʄ ᷃ ẽ ү ᴉ ڛ Ŀ ʁ ᷃
ẽ ү Ѐ Չ 2 ʴ 7 ᴗ Ŀ
҂ Ԁ ắ Ɑ ﭫ Ѣ ݥ ԍ ᷃ẽ
ү 2007 ᴗ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀ ڼ ʁ ү ֟
ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ȫ 2007 ᴗ ﮁ
Ä ȃ ﯴ ẽ ү ҭ Ḡ ì ʁ ᷃ ẽ ү
îĹ 2007ĺ Ä ݥ ĿԀ ὥ ڙ ʁ ڼ ᾱ
ﮝ Ĺ ₸ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ĺ ڢ ﯧ ẽ
Ŀ I/O ῄ ﮁ
ᾋ ۤ ₸
ڼ ﻮ ᾱ ٬ Ŀѐ ֟ ̙ ꞊ ࢥ ṧ Ṵ
ʶ ʁ Ĺ UNSDĿ2003ĺ ڰ ɪ ѱ Ṍ Ĺ Classifica⁃
tion by Broad Economic Categories ĿBECĺ Ä ȅ ҭ Ṍ Ŀ
HS ᾋ ѐ ֟ ڵ ԍ څ Ţ Ĺ capital
goodsĺ ~ ̙ Ĺ intermediate goodsĺ ʴ թ Ĺ consumption
goodsĺ Ṍ Ŀ ̙ BEC ᾋ ʑ ԍ ̣̱ 1Ä ﺿ
BEC ڼ ̙ ɰ Ṍ ۫ۖĿͲ ῇ ԍ HS ᾋ ѐ ֟ ҭ
ڼ ̙ ѐ ﯴ Ȃ ꞊ Ŀ ڛ ڙ HS ᾋ ﯲ ꜟ ﻮ ү
06~22ĿȜ Ᵽ 81 Ȃ Ⅱ Ṍ
ῄ Ä
（三）结果
ȅ ҭ ȫ Ϣ ʂ Ĺ ̱
9ĺ ĿͲ ῇ
֟ ʑ ѐ ֟ ̙
Ä
﮿ Ձ Ä Գ Ŀټ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ̇Ȏ
ᾱ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ֺ ﻮ ᾱ Ä
ṩ ᶿ Ŀ ᶓç ϱ éʴ ç ˸ ̇Ȏ ̆
ҵ é ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ ṩ
꞊ ẛ ʈ ɟ ᾱ ҭ ѐ ֟ ̙ ˣ ĿͲ ῇ
ࢥ ̿ HS ᾋ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ҭ ﺿ ﯴ ᾋ
ѐ ﯴ ɰ Ṍ Ä ṛ Ͳ ῇ ꜛ ẛ ç ʈ ɟ ؈ ӏ Ṍ ᷃ẽ
ү ῄ Ṍ ڼ éĹ HS -I/O concordance tableĺ Ŀ Ȃ
؎ ʄ ử ᶿ 8 ꞈ Ä
ﭲ ڙ
92.89% ʴ 92.83% Ŀڏ ̇Ȏ ᾱ
BEC
HS ᾋ ᾱ ҭ
HS ᾋ ̙
ѐ ֟ ҭ
̇Ȏ ᾱ
（二）数据
HS -I/O ڼ
HS -I/O ڼ
ȫ ү ֟ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ә
ҭ Ḕ Ţﺿ ᾱ ۫ꜟ ﹽ ѐ ү ֟ ~ѐ
֟ ̙ ̐ ~ȃ ﯴ ẽ ү ﯴ ̙
I/O Ⅱ Ṍ ῄ ѐ ү ֟ ҭ ̙
ѐ ֟ ҭ
图8进口中间品识别及 HS数据向 I/O部门行业的匹配过程
- 19 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
ﯴ Ŀ Ɑ ₸ Ѣ ᴗ Ḡ ʁ ү ֟ḕ
ﯴ Ä ̇ Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ǥ
50% ﯴ 5 Ȃ Ŀᶃ ̨
ﮄ ḹ ﮝ ῟ ﯴ Ŀ ڼ ү ֟ Ѐ
ڒ ᴗ ү ֟ ɭ ₮ 26.31% Ä ﭞ
Ŀ ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ǥ 5
څ ﯴ Ŀ ү ֟ Ѐ 2007 ᴗ ʁ
ү ֟ ﯣ 17.95%Ä ´ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟
ᾱ Ἧẏ ễ ڛ ᶃ ᵬ ﭐ
Ȏ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ ₸ ﭐ ﯱ
ẽ ᴇ ᾱ ǥ ڸ ҵ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ Ŀ
₮ ꜟ ʁ ᴇ ϐ ȓ ẛ
Ä
五、总结及评注
图9加工出口与一般出口的国内附加值率及各部门的出口占比
ɟ Ṵ ẽ ﭐ Ȏ ṙ ό Ḁ ̑
Ĺ 1-VSSp ĺ Ѐ 55.60%ʴ 57.26%Ä ȫ Ϣ ʂ
´ Ŀ ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ǥ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ
̇ Ὠ Ä Ԁ ὥ ڙ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ү ֟ᾱ Ѣ ﻶ
ﯣ Ŀᶿ ﭞ Ḡ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ ̿ ʁ ᴇ
ῄ ﭐ ϻ ǥ Ä ﭞ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟
ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ӽ Ձ ү Ҵ څ ằ Ҷ ´ Ŀƻ ǵ Ӥ
Ḡ Ŀ ₸ 20 90 ᴗ ﮁ Ḡ Ŀ ḡ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ̣ ᶃ ᵬ ﭐ
Ȏ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ؘᶛ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ ﯣ ڛ
Ŀ ʁ ᶲ ᷃ᶃ ᵬ ѱ ử ڸ Ջ ڼ ϐç éÄ
﮿ Ŀ ҂ ẛ ʁ ᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ
ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ Ŀ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ
ͫ ȫ ẛ ̇ Ȏ ᾱ ʴ ﻮ ᾱ ү ֟ ̐
Ȥ Ừ Ŀ ۢ ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ⱬ ử ڸ Ä
Ԁ ắ ᾱ Ả ڼ ʁ ᴇ ẽ
ՙ
Ŀ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ
Ә Ӽ Ŀѐ ̎ڰ ﮿ ẽ ﯩ ᶃ
Ể ĿӼ ẽ ₴ ǀ Cournot ɗ
ᴇ Ӑ ڰ Ŀ ݥ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ﮿
ﭡ Ŀټ ȃ ﯴ ῟ ڸ ϐ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ ῟
ʴ Ʃ ﯴ Ŀ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Կ ḹ ﮝ
῟ ﯱ ﯴ Ä Ŀç ͏ ⱥ é~ç ﬗⱥ ~
ⱥ é~ç ẞ ̇Ȏ ~Ẇ ͍ ʲ ᶔ ἃ ̇
Ȏ éʴ ç ϱ Ẇ ࣹ ̇Ȏ é ﯴ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ
Ŀڼ ʁ ᴇ ̇ Ȏ ү ֟ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ѐ 14.60% ~
15.30% ~21.45% ʴ 22.38% Ä ٬ Ŀ ῟ ʴ Ʃ ﯴ
ү ֟ ẽ ʁ ᴇ ﯴ ꜛ ẛ Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ֟ ̙
Ŀټ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ջ ڼ ϐ Ä ﭞ Ŀѥ ɣ Ͳ ῇ ԍ ɢ
ắ ڙ ʁ Ʃ ẽ ү ֟ ̨ﮄ ẽ ү ֟Ŀ
ڏ յ Ʃ ү ֟ ʑ ʁ Ừ ᶌ ǥ
ˣ Ä ؚ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ Ḡ Ʃ ẽ ₸ ʁ ̣
Ḡ ﭐ Ȏ Ϣ ʂ Ä
ẽ ӓ ԍ ᾱ Ä ﭞ Ŀѐ ֟
̙ ̐ Ƿ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ⱥ ڰ ẛ ̐ Ƿ
Ӽ Չ Ä ̙ ẽ ҵ ϐ
ç ﯸ é Ŀ ᶿ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ
ʴ ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ éճ Ŀ ₸ ﮿ ẽ
ɭ ₮ ḕ ̿ ṧ Ӽ ẽ ࢥ ᵭ ễ Ŀˣ
₸ Ӽ ẽ ɭ ₮ ḕ ̿ Ȉ
̙ ̐Ƿ Ŀѐ ꜛ ﮿ ẽ Äç
ﯸ éʴ ȃ ᾱ Ả ̿ ﮧ Ể ӓ
ˌ Ŀ ݥ Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ Ḅ ڼ ẽ ү
ϻ ᾱ Ả Ä
ﮧ Ể ӓ ˌ Ŀǥ ẽ ү ӓ ˌ
ϻ ڼ ϐ ﮧ Ӽ Ŀ Ể ꜛ ڛ
ʁ ᴇ ̙ ̐ Ƿ ѐ ֟ ̐ Ƿ Ä ẽ
ү Ể ӓ ˌ Կ Ŀ ̙ Ể ̐
Ƿ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ ĿӼ ẽ ʄ ǥ ̐Ƿ
ڢ Ŀ Ԁ ắ ᶃ ﯴ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ
ƴ ̇ Ὠ ᶃ ﯴ ӓ 8 Ȃ Ŀ ү ֟ ү ֟
ﯣ 66.61% Ä ڒ ﯴ ᶃ ῟ Ʃ
- 20 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
ʁ ̣ Ḡ ﭐ Ȏ Ϣ ʂ Ä
ẛ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ừ Ӽ ~ẽ ү ϻ Ջ ﮿
͉Ä ݥ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ʄ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ꜛ ڛ Ӽ
ẽ ẽ ڛ ԗ ṧ ԍ Ä
ڢ Ŀ Ԁ ắ ᶃ Ŀ ῟
Ʃ ﯴ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ´ Կ Ŀ
₸ Ѣ ᴗ Ḡ ḕ ࣸ ç ﬗⱥ ~
ⱥ éĿ ڼ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
Ὠ 16%Ŀ Ӽç ǥ é ﯴ ʁ ᴇ
ƴ ̇ ț Ղ ࣷ ү ֟ ễ Ä
Ͳ ῇ ҂ ѐ Ձ Ŀ ڼ Ӽ ẽ ᾱ
Ả ̿ ʁ ᴇ ѱ Ո ᷃ ẽ ү ӓ ˌ ϻ Ŀ
͉ Ӽ ẽ ẽ ̙ ѐ ֟ɟ ϻ ԍ
ﭵ ȿ ẽ ү Ể ӓ ˌ Ä ₸ Ŀɟ
﮿ ͉ ṧ ﮿ ẽ ɭ ₮ ḕ Ŀç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ
̿ⱽ Ȉ ﮧ ̙ ẽ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ Ŀ
ﭞ Ɑ Ŀ ̙ ̿ꜛ ڛ Ӽ ẽ ̙
̐Ƿ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ é
ճ ﮿ ѐ ḕ Ä ᶿ ﭞ Ʃ Ŀ ᾱ
Ả ﮿ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ڛ ỹ ࢩ Ä ؚ Ŀ ᾱ
ʴ թ Һ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ̙ ɟ ằ
ṧ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ﻥ ݯ ẽ ү ӓ ˌ ϻ Ŀç Ừ ɟ Ṵ é
ճ ʴ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ꜛ ڛ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ̹՟ ǥ
ẽ ү ӓ ˌ ϻ Ṽ Ä
ˣ ĿͲ ῇ Ֆ ү ₸ Ŀç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ₸ ϣ
ʁ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ࣸ ḕ Ә Ä ʄ ᾱ
₮ ꜟ ﮿ ү ֟̐ Ȥ Ừ ȫ Ŀ ڼ ṙ ϣ ƻ ǵ Ӥ
Ḡ ʁ ү ֟ḕ Ŀꜘ ټ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ ͫᶧ
꞊
ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ⱬ ӓ ̐ Ä ễ ؞ Ḡ FDI ʴ ̇
Ȏ ᾱ Ừ ʁ ѱ Ȃ ڰ ₮
ꜟ Ŀ Ȃ ₮ ꜟ ꜛ ڛ ʁ ࣸ ᶲ ᷃ᶃ ᵬ ѱ ڛ ẛ
Ҵ څ ﭐ Ȏ ṧ Ä ̮ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
Ὠ ᶓ ϐ Ŀ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ
ػ ĿͲ ῇ Ѐ ࢥ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ
՟ ɟ Ṵ Ŀ ݥ ⱥ Ȉ ἡ ᾱ Ả
ѐ ﻮ ү ֟ẽ Ϣ Ȥ Ä
ṙ ό ҂ ´ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ç ﯧ é
ᾱ Ả ₸ ﯲ Ừ ʁ Ձ Ϙ ç ﯧ éᾱ Ϣ Ȥ
Äç ﯧ éɟ Ả ѐ ʁ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ࣸ
ḕ Ɑ Ŀ ڰ ử ڸ Ӽ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ
Ä ᾱ թ Һ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ
̙ ɟ ằ Ѐ ͉ ̙ ꜛ Ừ Ŀ
ѐ ѐ ﮿ ẽ Ŀ ݥ ĿӼ ﮿ ẽ ̙
ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ᴉ ﭿ Ḡ Ӽ ẽ ỹ ࢩ ḕ Ä
ټ ү ֟ƴ ̇ ȫ Ϣ ʂ Ձ Ţ Գ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ
ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ֺ ﻮ ᾱ Ŀẍ ү ֟
ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ӽ Ձ ү Ҵ څ ằ Ҷ ´ Ŀƻ ǵ Ӥ
Ḡ Ŀ ₸ 20 90 ᴗ ﮁ Ḡ Ŀ ḡ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ̣
ᶃ ᵬ ﭐ Ȏ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ؘᶛ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
ﯣ ڛ Ŀ ʁ ᶲ ᷃ᶃ ᵬ ѱ ử ڸ Ջ
ڼ ϐç éÄ
（作者单位：复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济
研究中心；责任编辑：蒋东生）
注释
①
Ṍ Ϣ ό ԍ ̣̱
Dunford 2006
ĺ Ä
Ĺ
②ڒ ᶓ Ŀټ ү ֟ ̐ ﯣ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀǥ Ԋ ẽ ʁ ᴇ ﯣ
ᶓ Ä ῒ ᶃ ᵬ iPhone ẽ ṩ Ŀ Ể ӓ ̐ 178.96
᾿
iPhone Ŀ Ḡ ʁ ƴ ̇ 6.5 ᾿ ĿЀ
3.6%Ĺ Xing and DetertĿ2010ĺ Ä
ᶃ ᵬ ẽ Ṿ ̐
③Һ ẛ ό ĿAssche ʴ GangnesĹ 2010ĺ
ʁ ﯴ ṩ ҂ Ձ Ŀƺ ﯴ ẽ Ѣ յ
ؘ ʄ ´ Կ Ä
ᴗ
④ ȃ HS ᾋ ӏ
ڼ RCA ҭ Ä
⑤Ԁ ὥ ڙ ̇᷃ ᾱ ڼ ʁ ѱ ՙ ĿͲ ῇ
Ԁ ắ ẛ 1994~2001 ᴗ ʴ 2001~2008 ᴗ ẍ Ȃ Ϙ RCAĿϢ
ʂ Ձ Ŀ᷃ ʁ ڼ ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ Ջ ˣ Ȉ ڰ Ŀ
´ Ͳ ῇ ɢ ắ ڙ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ څ ﮧ ʁ ᷃
ˣ
Ä
ﭡ Ŀټ ȃ ﯴ ῟ ڸ ϐ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ
῟ ʴ Ʃ ﯴ Ŀ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
Ὠ Կ ḹ ﮝ ῟ ﯱ ﯴ Ä ٬ Ŀ
῟ ﯱ ﯴ ү ֟ ẽ ʁ ᴇ ﯴ ꜛ
ẛ Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ֟ ̙ Ŀټ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ջ ڼ ϐ
Ä ﭞ ԍ Ŀѥ ɣ Ͳ ῇ ɢ ắ ڙ ʁ Ʃ
ẽ ү ֟ ̨ﮄ ẽ ү ֟Ŀڏ յ
Ʃ ү ֟ ʑ ʁ Ừ ᶌ ǥ ˣ
Ä ؚ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ Ḡ Ʃ ẽ ₸
⑥
Һ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ѱ ﮝ ؈ ڰ ẽ
Ä ɟ ̙ ԍ ̣ ̱ EthierĹ 1982ĺ ~ Faini
Ĺ 1984ĺ ~ Okuno-Fujiwara Ĺ 1988ĺ ~ RodrikĹ 1995ĺ ~ Venables
Ĺ 1996ĺ Rodríguez-ClareĹ 1996ĺ Ä
⑦ɟ Ṵ ẽ Ɒ Ḁ ̑ Rosenstein-Rodan
Ĺ 1943ĺ Ŀ ˣ Murphy Ĺ 1989ĺ ʴ MatsuyamaĹ 1994ĺ ѐ
Ä
⑧
Ӽ Ɒ ԍ Ŀp=Ĺ μYq+bĺ /nxĿᶵ ڛ ̙
ε=-1Ä
̐Ƿ
ࢥ ᵭ ﮌ ﯸ
⑨ ₴ ᶓ Ŀʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ Yq ˣ ᶦ
ʵ
ẏ ڵ ⱽ
1
Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ Ŀѐ ﯲ Ừ Ȉ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ŀټ
﮿ ẽ ࢩ ḕ Ŀᶿ ﭞ ۢ Ʃ Ŀʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
- 21 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
Yq→∞Ŀ Կ ᶓ ẽ ᴇ Չ ꞉
⑩ҵ ̣̱₮ ﯱ Ä
Ä
economicsĿVol. 1Ĺ 1ĺ Ŀpp.1~25.
Ĺ 14ĺ MatsuyamaĿK.Ŀ1994Ŀç Complementarities and Cumula⁃
tive Processes in Models of Monopolistic Competition: A Sur⁃
veyé ĿDepartment of EconomicsĿNorthwestern UniversityĿEvan⁃
stonĿIL.
Ṍ ۫ۖ꞊ ѐ ֟ ̙ ҂ ԍ ̣̱ Dean
Ĺ 2007ĺ ~Dean Ĺ 2008ĺ Upward Ĺ 2010ĺ Ä
ҵ ̣̱ ì ʁ ᷃ẽ ү îĹ 2007ĺ Ä
Ͳ ῇ ḹ ﮝ á Ĺ ᶃ ټ ᶣ ᴗ ϻ ӓ ᶣ
Ĺ 15ĺ MudambiĿR.Ŀ2008Ŀç LocationĿControl and Innovation
in Knowledge-intensive IndustrieséĿJournal of Economic Geogra⁃
phyĿVol. 8Ŀpp.699~725.
ẽ ﯣ ĺ ῟ ﯱ ʴ
ḹ
ﮝ ῟ ﯱ Ĺ ѥ ɣ
I/O ῄ Ṍ Ձ ﯴ ʁ ῷ ѱ ﯴ Ṍ ὲ ᵲ Ŀڏ
I/O
ῄ II Ṍ ˃ ᶵ ʶ GB/T4754-2003 ﯧ
ػ
Ĺ 16ĺ MurphyĿK.ĿA. Shleifer and R. VishnyĿ1989Ŀç Industri⁃
alization and Big Pushé ĿJournal of Political EconomyĿVol. 97Ŀ
pp.1003~1026.
ﯴ Ṍ Ŀ ҕ ԍ ڼ ڛ ʴ
ḹ
ﮝ ҭ ĺ Ä ﯴ
῟ ڸ ᵲ ̣̱ OECDŢANBERD and STAN databas⁃
esĿMayĿ2003Ä
Ĺ 17ĺ NaughtonĿBarryĿ2007Ŀç Chinaås State SectorĿIndustri⁃
al Policies and the 11th Five Year Plané ĿTestimony before the
US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing
on theç Extent of Government Control of Chinaå s Economy and
Implication for the USéĿMay 24.
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- 22 -
