Cai Hong, director of European Studies Centre, GDUFS, recently had an interview with Nanfang Daily and voiced her opinions about the European debt crisis and Merkel’s first visit to Greece after it. As she pointed out, Germany was the biggest beneficiary as its capital inflow and economic growth kept increasing when struck by the European debt crisis. The future attitudes of Germany depends on the German voters’ comprehension about the goals and values of European integration, and now most Germans are in favor of staying in the Eurozone.
Cai Hong thought Germany would pay around 221 billion to 600 billion euros for the default of debtor nation, with the GDP of 2500 billion euros. In the predictable future, the Eurozone will not be disintegrated but will see continuous troubles in quite a long time.
Cai Hong said that, even though Greece exited the euro area, the devaluation of local currency would not be of much help to reduce the cost and enhance competitiveness of the economy. Therefore, Greek government should make clear and far-sighted judgment, focusing on the improvement of economic competitiveness and realize the economic growth.
The attached are the previous interviews to Cai Hong by Nanfang Daliy on European issues:
1.峰会前瞻：实质援欧，悬！，《南方日版》2011年11月3日A05版。
http://epaper.nfdaily.cn/html/2011-11/03/content_7021918.htm
2.意新政府未获信任票，技术官僚恐难救世，《南方日版》2011年11月19日A03版。
http://epaper.nfdaily.cn/html/2011-11/19/content_7027631.htm
3.促就业保增长摆上主要议程、欧美启动量化宽松征兆明显，《南方日版》2012年2月1日A11版。
http://epaper.nfdaily.cn/html/2012-02/01/content_7052864.htm
4.中国“不做空欧洲”安定欧元区，《南方日报》2012年2月21日A15版。
http://epaper.nfdaily.cn/html/2012-02/21/content_7058514.htm
