《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
贸易政策与产业发展：基于
全球价值链视角的分析 *
□唐东波
摘要：本文借助于关联产业的垂直分工理论，在投入—产出框架下分析了中国的贸易政
策如何影响了国内的产业发展。研究发现，加工贸易与一般贸易的“二元”贸易政策是形成
中国现阶段“二元”贸易结构的重要原因。“二元”关税政策在促进中国加工贸易迅速扩张的
同时，也在一定程度上抑制了国内相关产业的发展。自由贸易以及消除加工贸易与一般贸
易之间的关税差异不仅有助于降低中间品使用成本，进而促进下游产业发展，而且，上下游
产业之间的“需求关联”效应也能带来上游产业的持续扩张。针对制造业行业出口附加值率
的估算结果表明，中国出口技术复杂产品高涨的现象可由加工贸易的扩张来解释，但加工出
口的国内附加值率显著低于一般出口，出口扩张最快的技术复杂行业，其加工出口的国内附
加值率均小于 40%。这意味着，出口产品的结构升级还只是国内企业进一步参与全球垂直分
工的结果，中国融入全球经济的程度相对较“浅”。
关键词：贸易政策
产业发展
加工贸易
附加值率
一、引言
ѱ Ӥ ʴ ᾱ ڼ ʁ ѱ ễ ʴ ҵ ѐ Ŀ ˥ Ừ ѱ
ࣧϨ Ȝ ꞊ Ĺ Grossman and Helpman Ŀ1991ţ LucasĿ2009ĺ Ä ᶓ Ŀȃ ʁ ѱ ̣ ᶃ ᵬ ẽ
Ȏ Ṿ Ɑ ᵹ ᶌ ѥ Ջ Ä MudambiĹ 2008ĺ ç ̐ ղ ᵴ Պ é ҂ ү Ŀ
ȃ ʁ ϐ Կ ằ Ŀᶃ ᵬ ẽ Ṿ ǥ ƴ ̇ Ӽ ﮝ ʴ ﮿ ᵑ ը
①
ﮝ Ễ ڵ ػ ﭲ ʁ ̆Ŀ ƴ ̇ ẽ ϛ ػ ʴ ﬔﯯ ѱ ʁ ̆ Ä
ᶿ ʵ ᶃ ᵬ ᾱ Ừ Ȑ ڛ ﮝ ϐ Ŀټ ̇ Ⱬ ʁ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ ʴ ǥ ẽ ƴ ̇
Ŀ ڼ ɪ څ ʁ ̆ ٬ Ŀԗ ҵ ԝ Ä
ڼ ʁ Ḡ Ŀ30 ﮧ ᴗ Ḡ ꞉ Ӽ ᶉ ﮱ ꞉ ﯴ ẽ Ả Ả ὲ Ŀ ḡ
ᾱ ʴ FDI ẢĹ LallĿ1995ţ Naughton Ŀ2007ţ Ӗ Ŀ2010ĺ Ä ݥ Ŀ ᾱ Ả ᴇ Ŀ ꞉
ﯴ ₸ Ƿ ᵲ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ç ﯧ éɟ Ả Ä ۫Ῡ ẽ ϐ Ừ Ȑ
ᶭ ʐ ʴ ʁ ѱ Ŀἥ ۫Ῡ ᶌ ﮵ ؈ ᾱ ṙ ό ʴ ƨ ό
Ջ ؾ ʶ Ä ꞉ Ӽ Ŀ ʁ Ȯ Ṥ ̇Ȏ ᾱ Ŀ ᶓ ѱ Ṧ ʄ Ṧ ử ʁ
̆ ᵲ Ṍ Ѵ ʴ ﮝ Ŀ͑ҕ ₸ Ţ Գ ѐ ʁ ̆ ̙ ằ Ҷ ~Ջ ڼ Ṹ ̐
ẽ ~ڼ Գ ѐ ࢥ ᵭ ݽ ʄ ḕ څ ү ֟ ᵹ Ĺ World BankĿ1993ĺ Ä
͑ᾲ Ŀ ﮝ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ḕ Ձ ﯴç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ڼ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ ՙ ҂ ѽ ᶿ
ʵ ů ټ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ ͫḠ Ӱ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ﮧ څ ử ڸ Ӽ ẛ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ů յ
ç ᷃ é10 ᴗ ˣ ϲ ڛ Ḡ Ŀ ҂ ݽ ڼ ﭳ Ӽ ț Ղ Ä
Ϣ Ȥ ﺽᵐ ᶿ ﮿ Ţڢ ﯧ ϛ ₸ ڼ ʄ ᵽ 10 ᴗ ѐ ү ֟ ɭ ὧ Ȃ
* ڛ ڙ ʹ ᶣ Ɽ Ԋࣧ ﭫ ҂ څ ՛ ˹ Ĺ 10JJD790009ĺ ~Ʃ ﮆ څ ࣧ ﭫ ࣧԊ ﬔᶣ
ʴ Ӽ ʈ Ԋ ϱ Ĺ 12692191100ĺ Ä ﬖLJև Ӗ ʹ ڼ ր ﬖ Ŀ Ɑ LJև
Ʀ ʹ ʴ
Ἥլ ﱣȄ ﮧ ﻺ Ä ڒ ᶓ Ŀ Ʊ Ä
- 13 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
̨ﮄ Ṧ Ꞌ Ύ Ŀ ữ ʁ ڼ ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ ﯸ
ʴ ϐ ẛ ˾ յ ţ ڢ
ϛ ĿͲ ῇ ϩ ɟ Ṵ ẽ ﭐ Ȏ ṙ ό ʴ ᷃á
ẽ ү Ɒ Ḁ ̑Ŀ͙Ɒ ẛ ç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ڼ ʁ ᴇ Ջ
ɟ ẽ ՙ ҂ ѽ ʵ ů ₸ ⱱ
ᾲ ţ ڢ ϛ ĿͲ ῇ ṧ ᾱ ҭ ȫ ẛ ʁ ̇Ȏ
ү ֟ ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ŀ ڼ Ϣ ʂ ѐ ﯴ ẛ
Ɒ ţ ڢ Ԣϛ ₸ ᶃ Ϣ ȹ Ä
ͫ Ä 1996~2009 ᴗ Ŀ ằ
ټ -115.41% ڙ 64.73%Ŀ۬ʈ ᵲ Ȉ
ǥ Ĺ ̱ 2ĺ Ŀ ݥ ټ ̇Ȏ ᾱ Ȉ ₸
ằ څ Ä
ﹽ
ᾱ ڼ ա ˣ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ Ձ Ŀ
ʁ ᾱ ằ Ḡ ᾿ ʁ ~ᵂ ʁ Վ ǡ
ﭲ ʁ ̆ ᵲ Ĺ ̱ 3ĺ Ŀ ĿḠ ᾿ ʁ ʴ ʁ
Վ ǡ ֟ᾱ ằ څ Ä ݥ Ŀ ؞ ̙Ŀ
Һ ﮵ ؈ ꜞ ỹ څ ẏ ằ Ŀ ⱥ
~ ﬗⱥ ~ ⱥ
ﯴ ᴓ ằ ằ Ĺ ̱ 4ĺ Ŀ ʁ ү
二、中国对外贸易的结构
特征与比较优势
ʁ ᴇ ѱ ễ ʴ ѐ ү ֟ ᾱ ỹ
ࢩ ḕ Ŀ ʁ Ừ ᶃ ᵬ ᾱ ѱ
Ä ᶿ 1 ꞈ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ᾱ ټ 1996 ᴗ
1510.50 ᾿ Ӽ 2009 ᴗ 12015.34 ᾿
Ŀᴗ ӓ ễ ǥ ﭲ 16%Ŀѐ ү ֟ ᶃ Ϩ ѐ ү
֟ ᾱ ﯣ ṩ ټ 2.77% Ӽ 8.79% Ä
ݥ Ŀᾱ ɭ ₮ ڛ ࣸ ễ Ɑ Ŀ ʁ ڼ ᾱ
Ϣ Ȥ Ձ ү ẛ ﮧ ᵼ Ä
图2中国对外贸易的地区特征及外资对于顺差的重要作用
ټ ڼ ᾱ ʁ ᴇ Ϣ Ȥ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ۬ʈ ᵲ Կ
ᶓ ҭ ẛ ػ Ä ᶿ 2 ꞈ Ŀ۬ʈ ᵲ ʁ
ѐ ү ֟ᾱ ﯣ ỹ 90% Ӽ Ŀ ᴇ ὗ ᵲ
څ ﮧ 10% ᴇ Ä ҂ Ŀ Ϣ ʂ ʁ
̇Ȏ ẽ ̙֚ Ҧ῟ Ջ ɟ Ä Ͳ ῇ Ŀ
ƻ ǵ Ӥ ؞ Ŀ۬ʈ ѱ ᵲ ҵ Ả
ⱪ ʈ ͏ ṧ Ŀꜛ ڛ ᴉ Ȧ ϐ ᴇ ὗ ᵲ
Ȉ ⱽ ʴ ̇Ȏ Ŀѐ Ӥ ʁ
ᾱ ﯲ Ừ Գ Ä ₸ FDI
᷃Ŀ ѐ ү ֟ᾱ ﻲ ẛ Ḡ
Ţ ҭ Ḡ Ṧ ᴗ ì ʁ ؈ ᴗ ̮î Ä
图3中国贸易顺差的主要来源地各自所占总顺差比例
Ţ
؈ ᴗ ̮î Ä
1998~1999
ᴗ ڼ ᾿ ᾱ ҭ Ḡ
CEIC
Ŀ ҭ ӓ Ḡ Ṧ ᴗ ì ʁ
图4部分行业贸易顺差的变化特征
图1中国出口规模及进出口占世界比例
Ţ ﯴ ɰ Ṍ ֟ Ѻ ؈ ì
ʁ
ῷ ѱ ﯴ Ṍ î Ĺ GB/
Ţ ҭ Ḡ Ṧ ᴗ ì ʁ ؈ ᴗ ̮î Ä Ŀ2001 ᴗ ʴ 2000 ᴗ
T4754-2003ĺ Ŀﯴ ҭ ѱ HS ᾋ ʈ
ҭ Ḡ ĿHS ﹽ ȃ
ɟ
Ϩ ѐ ֟ ҭ 2000 ᴗ ʴ 1999 ᴗ ҭ ,1998 ᴗ ҭ
ᵹ
1997 ᴗ ʴ
1998ĺ ʴ ì ʁ ᾱ ѱ ؈ ᴗ ̮î
ҭ Ḡ ì ʁ ڼ ѱ ؈ ᴗ ̮îĹ
1999 ᴗ ҭ ϻ ӓ Ä
2009ĺ Ä ﮄ ػ Ţ Ä
Ĺ
- 14 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
۫ ɢ ắ ϐ ﮝ ĿͲ ῇ ̿ᶦ
֟ᾱ ѱ Ṧ ẛ ´ Կ ẽ ʄ ử Ä
ἥ Ŀټ ڼ ᾱ ۫ꜟ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ1996~2009 ᴗ Ŀ̇
Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ү ֟ᾱ ṩ ỹ 50% Ŀ
Ҵ څ ᾱ ằ ꞉ ڛ ̇Ȏ ᾱ Ĺ ̱ 5ĺ Ä ꞉
Ӽ Ŀ ʁ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ễ FDI څ ɭ ₮ Ἧ
᷃῟ Ջ ɟ Ä ₸ Ŀ ʄ ѐ ֟څ
ẏ ̙ Ŀ ṧ ʁ Ջ ڼ Ṹ ̐ ḹ ﮝ Ṱ ѐ ﯴ
ʴ ̇Ȏ ẽ Ŀᶓ ˣ ̿ẽ ү ֟ը Ϩ ȃ Ä
ᶃ ᵬ Ȏ ʴ ẽ ᶭ Ŀ֭ʁ ȕ
̿ ʁ Ϩ ç ؎ ﬖé Ŀԍ Ŀ ʁ ڼ
ᾱ Ừ Ȑ ˃ څ ử ڸ Ӽ ɰ Ȑ
Ѧ ү ֟ ՟ ﯱ Ả ὲ ②Ä
ẍ Ȃ Ɑ ؞ RCA ﹺ ѐ ﯴ ɢ ắ Ŀ
ۢ ʁ ڼ ᾱ ﮝ Ä ᶿ 6 ꞈ Ŀˋ
ʴ ꞈ 1994 ᴗ ʴ 2008 ᴗ RCA Ŀ
ӏ i 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙ Կ ﯸ ϐ ɳ
ԍ ƺ ﭫ ꞈ Ä Գ Ŀڢ Ⅰա Չ ӏ
RCA>0Ŀ ﭞ ꜞ ҵ ϐ Ŀ ṙ Ŀڢ Ⅲա Չ
ӏ ꜞ ﯩ ϐ ἇ ţ ڢ Ⅱա Չ Ŀ
ӏ i 1994 ᴗ RCA<0Ŀ 2008 ᴗ RCA>0Ŀԍ ̱
ӏ i 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙ѱ Ṧ ẛ ϐ ἇ ՟
ϐ Ŀڢ Ⅳա Չ ӏ nj ʨ Ջ ۢĿ
45°
ϐ ϐ ἇ Ä ﭡ Ŀڒ ӏ ﯩ
i
ҭ ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ ﯲ Ừ Ȃ ᵛ Ŀ ʁ ڼ
ᾱ ۬ʈ ᵲ Ŀ ᾱ ằ ڼ ա
ﭲ ʁ ̆ ᵲ Ä ݥ Ŀ FDI ẽ
ՙ Ŀ ʁ ڼ ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ ừ Ձ ﻮ ᾱ
̇Ȏ ᾱ ҩ Ä ۫Ῡ Ŀ ﻮ ᾱ
ẛ ᴇ Ŀ ʁ ᴇ ȥ ̙ ү ֟Ɠ ~ո
Ṍ ḹ ﮝ ῟ ﯱ ẽ Ä ἥ ۫Ῡ Ŀ
̇Ȏ ᾱ ἤ Ŀ ṧ ʁ Ջ ڼ Ṹ ̐ḹ ﮝ Ṱ
ʴ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﮧ Ả Ŀ ʄ ѐ ֟ǥ ƴ ̇
̙ ѐ ﯴ ̇Ȏ Ŀᶓ ˣ ՟ ʈ ү ֟ ց ~
῟ ﯱ ẽ Ä
Պ Ӽ Ɑ Ŀ ꞈ ƺ ӏ ϐ ̹ ĿՋ ۢĿ
45°Պ ﮿ ӏ ϐ ̫₵ Ä ڢ Ŀڒ ӏ
inj ʨ ﯩ 45°Պ Ӽ Ɑ Ŀ ꞈ 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙ᴇ
ƺ ӏ ϐ ؘ Ŀ Ɑ ؚ Ҷ
ṗ 45°Պ Ŀ ƺ ӏ ϐ څ Ä
Ͳ ῇ Ձ Ŀ 1994~2008 ᴗ ؞ ̙Ŀ ʁ ڼ ᾱ
ꜞ ҵ ϐ ﭬ ﯱ ẽ Ḕ Ϣ ἃ
Ĺ 46ĺ ~ﮝ ỻ ỻ Ṍ Ĺ 16Ŀ20ĺ ~ ǵ Ṍ
Ĺ 42ĺ ~ Ṍ Ĺ 57Ŀ61Ŀ62Ŀ63Ŀ65ĺ ~ ᶶ Ṍ
Ĺ 67ĺ ~ո Ṍ Ĺ 64ĺ ~ ҵ ṌĹ 95ĺ ʴ ̆ҵ ṌĹ 94ĺ
ţ ﯩ ϐ ἇ ﭬ ﯱ ẽ ₸ ʢ ֚ʢ Ṍ ẽ
Ĺ 88ĺ ~ḁ Ĺ 26Ŀ74ĺ ~ ⱥ Ĺ 90ĺ ~
ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ ﮿ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ ϐ
₸ Ƅ Կ ů ү ֟
ᴉ ϻ ₸ Ƅ ڛ ẛ Կ ů Ձ ѱ ҂
ؘ ڛ Ϣ ό ③Ä ڼ ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ϩ ̮
Ջ Ĺ 37ĺ ʴ ἃ Ĺ 39ĺ Ä
④
ᵱ Պ ۫ử ս Ὠ ʴ ϙ Ҷ ՛ ӓ Ŀԍ ʁ ڼ
ᾱ ϐ Ϣ Ȥ ϐ ڰ Ŀ ݥ 1994 ᴗ Ջ
Ŀ2008 ᴗ ڼ ᾱ Ӽ Ձ ڛ Ȉ ҵ ϐ
Ä ἥ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ Ӱ ڙ ӏ ϐ ἇ
ϐ Ŀϐ ﭬ ﯱ Ḕ Ỗ Ẏ Ἑ ƴ ̴Ĺ 87ĺ ~
Balassa ʴ
BauwensĹ 1988ĺ ү Կ ﯸ ϐ Ĺ Revealed
Comparative Advantage ĿRCAĺ Ƽ ᴛ Ŀấ ẛ ﹽ ȃ
ӏ ѐ ү ֟ᾱ ϐ Ä
93
94
69
58
92
8396
66
50
89
86
13
73
81
Ⅱ
Ⅰ
43
68
21
82
54
84
72
56
76
44
97
48
87
33
17
52
28
78
31
91
35
71
19
22
37
30
25
24
90
14
79
39
45
80
74
41 15
Ⅲ
Ⅳ
88
27
12
75
47
26
图5出口中的加工贸易占比及加工顺差在总顺差中的主导地位
Ţ2009 ᴗ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ҭ Ḡ CEIC ҭ ֨Ŀ Processing and As⁃
sembling ʴ Processing with Imported Materials Ջ ̇ ڛ ڙ Ŀ ҭ ӓ Ḡ
ì ʁ ؈ ᴗ ̮îĹ 2009~2010ĺ Ä
6中国进出口贸易显性比较优势（ RCA）的动态特征
图
Ţ ȃ ﭫ ڼ
HS ᾋ ʪ Ä Պ ᵾ ᴇ ʑ Ţ
16 20 42 46 57 61~65 67
~
~
~
~
~
~
ʴ
95
Ä ҭ Ḡ ì ʁ ڼ ѱ ؈
ᴗ ̮îĹ
1996ĺ ʴ ì ʁ ᾱ ѱ ؈ ᴗ ̮îĹ 2009ĺ Ä
- 15 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
ǝ Ĺ 72Ŀ73ĺ ~ ց Ἑ ƴ ̴Ĺ 84ĺ
ʴ ﮷ Ɣ ﮝ Ϣ Ȥ Ĺ 89ĺ ῟ ﯱ ᾱ
Ä ﭞ Ɑ ĿȲ ỻ ʂ ꞉ ἃ ṌĹ 19Ŀ12Ŀ22ĺ ~ Ạ
Ĺ 24ĺ Ṍ ӏ Ĺ 75Ŀ80Ŀ25Ŀ79Ŀ27ĺ
̹ ẛ ϐ Ä Ϣ ʂ ڰ ử ڸ
Ӽ ẛ RodrikĹ 2006ĺ ~Yang Ĺ 2009ĺ Amiti ʴ
FreundĹ 2010ĺ ᶣ ɟ ʁ ү ֟ ᾱ ѱ Ṧ Ϣ
ᶃ Ể Ŀ Ể ѐ ү ̿ Ể ṧ ₳
Ἑ Ŀ ﭞ C =YqĿϢ ʶ Ϙ ̴ Ţ
0
μYq
p
(1- )
Ŀ L =
Y
μ Yq
w
X=
Ӽ ꜟ Ȅ ү ẛ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ẽ ү Ĺ Yqĺ
̙ Ĺ Xĺ ḹ ﮝ Ĺ L ĺ ࢥ ᵭ ̙ ɟ ﹺ Ä ѐ Ŀ Y
Y
ẽ Ể ᶃ Ŀӓ ˌ Ɑ ﮄ ػ Ừ
ẽ ̐Ƿ Ŀ c=qĿɐ Ţ
⑤
Ȥ ɢ ﭫ Ä
q=σp w1 - μ
μ
三、“二元”贸易政策对国内
ṙ Ӽ ꜟ Ŀԍ ڛ ʁ ᴇ ̙ Ĺ Xĺ ࢥ ᵭ ʔ Ţ
p=σ-1 μq1 μw(μ - 1) μ
产业发展的影响机制
խ ʁ Ӥ ѱ ṙ ό Ḁ ̑ ﮿ Ŀʁ ᴇ ѱ
ﮝ ԍ ẍ څ ẽ ŢӼ ẽ Ĺ Xĺ ʴ ﮿ ẽ
Ĺ Yĺ Ŀ ȓ ̙ Ŀˣ ꜛ ̙ ẽ
ԍ ̱Ŀ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ڼ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ ᵹ Ӑ
﮿ ẽ ⱪ ẽ ̐Ƿ ʴ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ ϻ Ä
（二）中间品供给
⑥Ä Ϣ ʶ ʁ ڼ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ʴ Ể Ϣ Ȥ
ʁ ᴇ Ể ̙ ȓ Ȅ Ѐ Ḡ Ӽ ẽ
Ĺ Xĺ Ŀ Ɑ ԍ ʑ ɟ ڼ ᾱ ̐ Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ѐ
֟Ä ҕ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ Ĺ Xĺ ٬ ĿͲ ῇ ̎ڰ ᷃
ĿͲ ῇ ԍ Okuno-FujiwaraĹ 1988ĺ ~Murphy
Ĺ 1989ĺ ʴ VenablesĹ 1996ĺ Ә Ӽ Ŀѐ ̎ڰ ʁ
ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ẽ ̙ ӓ ԍ ᾱ Ŀݥ Ӽ ﮿
ẽ ḹ ﮝ Ṱ Ừ Կ ằ Ä ʄ Ɒ ẽ
̙ ᷃á ẽ ү ɟ Ṵ ճ ĿͲ ῇ ̿ ﭫ ϣ ç ﯧ é
Ѐ ḹ ﮝ Ĺ L ĺ Ŀݥ ɭ ₮ Ŀḹ ﮝ ࢥ
X
ᵭ ẽ ү X Պ ﯸ ʔ Ŀ ﭞ ĿӼ ẽ ﭬ ﯱ
ṧ ₳ ʔ ԍ ﮿ ﯲ ꜟ Ţ
π=px- ( +Δ) x-f
⑦
ᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ Ä
w
a
（一）中间品需求
ĿΔ ʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ể Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ȏ ᶣ ̙
ᶣ ӓ Ȏ ằ Ҷ Ŀx ƺ ﭬ ﯱ ẽ ү ϻ Ŀa
ﮄ ػ ẽ ү ࢥ ḹ ﮝ ᷃Ŀ f ̙ ẽ ɒ ڰ
᷃Ä ₴ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ȧ ǥ Ŀ ᵐ
Һ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ŀﭞ Ɑ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
̎ⱥ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ᶃ ݥ ɭ ₮ Ŀ
ԗ ό ₸ ẽ Ể ₸ Ể ӓ ̐Ƿ ϔ ۫Ŀƺ
ẽ ẽ ү YĿ ʁ ᴇ ̐Ƿ qÄ Y ԍ ᾱ
Ŀq Ễ ẏ Ŀ ʁ Ể ̐Ƿ ̇Ӽ ʁ ᴇ
Ä
ẽ ᶃ ̙ nx=X+Δ Ŀn ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
x
ẽ Y ﭬ ﯱ ꜛ ḹ ﮝ L ʴ ̙
Y
ẏ ĿΔ ̙ ү ֟ ẏ Ŀ Ɒ Ŀἦ Δ =b/
x
x
X ѐ ﯴ ẽ Ӑ Ả Ŀ Ŀḹ ﮝ Ȏ wĿ ̙ ̐Ƿ
pĿY ẽ ﭬ ﯱ ﯴ ԍ ᶿ ﮿ ɟ ﹺ
Ţ
pÄ ҭ ẽ ү x Ừ Ϙ
̴Ŀԍ ڛ ᶿ ﮿ ̐Ƿ Ӑ ڰ ۫ử Ţ
a(w+Δ)
p=
μ
1 - μ
Y
1+ 1 nε
x =
Ma Y AX L
s.t. pX+wL C
Ӽ ꜟ Ŀε ̐Ƿ ࢥ ᵭ ﮌ ﯸ Ä ࢥ ᵭ
̐Ƿ ﮌ ﯸ Ŀε ᵹ Ӑ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ä
Cournot ₮ ꜟ ﮿ Ŀʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ X=
Y
0
Ŀ0≤μ≤1Ä ﺿ ؎ Ϙ ̴Ŀ
ԍ pX=μC ĿwL =Ĺ 1-μĺ C Ŀ Ţ
0
Y
0
1-μ
(1-μ)1-
μ
p w1-μ
μ
æ(1-μ)C ö
AC μ
=
μ
μ
μYq/pĿү ֟ࢥ ᵭ Δ Ŀ ݥ ﮿ ẽ ẽ ẏ Y Ŀ
æ
μC
p
ö
÷
ø
0
0
x
Y=Açè
0
ç
ç
÷
÷
ᶵ ´ │ε│=1Ä ؚ Ӽ ẽ ̙
ࢥ ᵭ ̐Ƿ ﮌ ﯸ Ѐ ᵹ Ӑ ﮿ ẽ Ŀ
ү ֟ࢥ ᵭ څ խ ԗ ɟ ⑧Ä
w
è
ø
ҭ ﭞ Ŀԍ ѐ ڛ ڙ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ ﮄ ػ ẽ ү Ừ
ﭲ ꜟ Ţ
c= C
ѐ Ŀڒ Ӽ ẽ ѐ ү ṉ Ɑ Ŀπ=0Ŀ
0
Y
=σp w1-μ
μ
1-μĺ 1-μÄ ̎ڰ Ŀ﮿ ẽ Ĺ Yĺ
Ŀσ=1/AμĹ
Ϣ ʶ
nx=X+Δ
ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ X=μYq/pĿ
μ
x
- 16 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
=MPL(Lˉ -LD)
w+Δ
∗
ү ֟ࢥ ᵭ Δ =b/pĿ ̐Ƿ ϻ ӓ Ừ ɟ ﹺ ꜟ Ţ
x
p=a(w+Δ) + fnp μYq b
Ӽ ɟ ẏ ʴ ϻ ӓ ẏ ۫ ử ɟ ﹺ ۢ ẛ
Ӽ ẽ ӓ ˌ Ɑ Ŀ ̙ Ể ӓ ˌ ̐Ƿ p
ʴ Ӽ ẽ ˹ n ɭ ὧ Ŀѐ ṙ
Ţ
(
+ )
ĿΔ Ễ ẏ Ŀ ꞈ ﮿ ẽ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ
ẽ ̙ Ȏ ằ Ҷ Ä Ʃ ʶ ʔ
ﮄ ﯸ ԍ ∂w/∂Yq>0Ŀ ﮿ ẽ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ
ϻ w Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ȝ Ӑ ڰ ẽ Yq ʔ Ä
（三）均衡分析
∗
μYq+b
f
a(w+Δ)
ﺿ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ ȓ Ȅ ʔ Ŀἦ w=w
Ĺ Yqĺ ĿṴ Ṭ Ţ
n=
Ŀ p=
f
μYq+b
1-
a w Yq
( ( ) +Δ)
p=σ-1 μq1 μw Yq (μ-1) μĿ p=
( )
ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ֑ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ̙ç ࢥ
ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ʴ ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ éճ Ä ۫
Ῡ Ŀ﮿ ẽ Ȉ ǥ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ﭿ Ḡ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ
ḕ Ŀѐ ⱽ Ȉ ﮧ ̙ ẽ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ
ţ ἥ ۫Ῡ Ŀ Ӽ ẽ ẏ ̇Ŀ Ể
̇Ӂ ̿ ṧ ﮿ ẽ Ȉ ̐Ƿ ڛ
̙ ȓ Ȅ Ä
f
1-
μYq+b
ҕ ࢥ ᵭ ɟ ﹺ ٬ Ŀﭞ ﯩ ࢥ ᵭ ʔ ֑ ẛ ̙
Ể ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ̙ ɟ ﹺ
Ŀ
0≤μ≤1 ݥ ∂w/∂Yq>0Ŀ ﭞ Ŀࢥ ᵭ ᵴ Պ p
Ĺ Yqĺ ՟
D
﮿
ս Ä ꞉ Ӽ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ̇ Ɑ Ŀ
ڼ ҕ ࢥ ᵭ ʴ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ Ӽ Ŀټ ﮿
ẽ ᴉ Ȧ ƫ ̙ ̐Ƿ ᵱ ﮿ ͉Ä
ࢥ ү ₸ Ŀ Ӽ Ɒ ʁ ᴇ ̙
ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ʄ ǥ Ŀټ ᵐ Һ ẛ ѐ ֟ ՙ Ŀ
ؚ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ۫Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ
̐Ƿ p≤pÄ ₴ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ ₸ ϵ Ŀ͑ᾲ Ŀ
Ḡ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ̐Ƿ p ὲ pĿ
ԍ ᵐ Һ ѐ ֟Ŀټ ᶃ ʁ ᴇ Ể ﯣ Ŀﭞ Ɑ
Ӽ ẏ Ţ
̙ ȓ Ȅ ۫ử Ŀڒ ̙ ѐ ֟
Ɑ ĿḠ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ᵹ Ӑ
﮿
ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ څ խ Ä ȅ ҭ Ӽ ₮ ﯱ ʄ
ử ĿͲ ῇ Ϸ Ձ Ŀᶿ ʂ Ӽ ẽ ˹ Ĺ nĺ ɒ
ڰ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ễ ̿ﭿ Ḡ Ȏ ʴ
Ừ Ӽ Ŀﭞ Ɑ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ Պ pĹ Yqĺ ՟ Ӽ ս Ä
S
μYq+bæ
a(w+Δ)ö
ڏ ₸ ĿӼ ẽ ˹ Ĺ nĺ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
Ĺ Yqĺ ễ ̇Ŀ Ể ̇Ӂ ̿ ʁ ᴇ
̙ Ể ̐Ƿ ᵱ ﮿ ͉Ä ﭞ Ŀ ʶ Ӱ Ŀ﮿ ẽ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ̙ừ Ձç Uéﯱ ɟ ﹺ Ä
Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ̙ ӓ ˌ ɟ ﹺ ᶿ 7 ꞈ Ŀ Ŀ
ꞈ Ӽ ẽ ẽ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ŀˋ
ꞈ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ Ä ՟ ﮿ ս D ᵴ Պ
n=
ç1-
÷
ˉ
p
f
è
ø
ʶ Ӽ ɟ ʁ ᴇ ̙ Ể ࢥ ᵭ ʴ ȓ Ȅ
Ɒ ĿͲ ῇ Ձ Ŀʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ừ Ĺ w Ĺ w+Δĺ ĺ
Ể ӓ ˌ ʲ ﬖ ẏ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀ ﻮ ӓ ˌ
Ḁ ̑ᴇ ҂ ᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ŀ
Ͳ ῇ ࢥ ѐ ҂ ʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ể Ȏ Ӑ ڰ Ä
ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ Ŀ ḹ ﮝ ࢥ ᵭ Ĺ Lĺ
p
S ᵴ
Պ
Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ḹ ﮝ ࢥ ᵭ Ĺ L ĺ ẽ ḹ ﮝ ࢥ ᵭ
D
ʴ Ŀ Ӽ Ɒ Ŀ Ţ
E3
H
(1-μ)Yq w +nax
ˉ
L =L +L =
P
D
Y
X
ѐ ĿͲ ῇ ̎ڰ ʁ ᴇ ḹ ﮝ Ể Ȏ
ڰ ử ڸ ﯸ Ŀ ﭞ Ȏ ẽ ﮌ ﯸ εwĿYqʴ εw+Δ ĿYqӓ խ
1Ä ĿӼ ẽ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ ڼ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
ﮌ ﯸ ﹺ ࢥ ڰ ἡ ﯸ ĿͲ ῇ ⱥ ڰ 1/2<
E2
E1
εw+ΔĿYq<1Ŀ ﭞ Ŀᶵ ´ ∂L /∂Yq>0Ä ₴ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ
D ᵴ
Պ
D
Yq1
Yq2
ẽ ḹ ﮝ ẽ Ὠ ̫ɭ ὧ Ŀ
Ȏ ϻ ḹ ﮝ ẽ Ὠ Ţ
Yq
图7
均衡分析
- 17 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
̙ Ĺ Xĺ ʁ ᴇ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ Պ Ŀç Uéﯱ S ᵴ Պ ̙
Ĺ Xĺ ʁ ᴇ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ Պ Ŀ ϻ Պ P ڼ ʁ ᴇ ̙
ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ä
ڒ ʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ػ E ả Ɑ ĿӼ ẽ
2
ѐ ᷃ ﯲ Ừ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ
̙ ɟ Ṵ ճ ̿ﭿ Ḡ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ỹ ࢩ ḕ
Ŀ ḹ ﮝ Ȏ ϻ Ӽ ꜛ ڛ Ể ṧ ₳
Ɒ ₮ ﯱ ȓ ࢥ ӓ ˌ ĿͲ ῇ Գ Ԁ ὥ
ڒ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ p Ȧ ǥ Ɑ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
ẽ ̙ ﮿ ẽ ᷃ Ŀ ꜛ ڛ Ӽ ﮿
Ἑ Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ ̿ Ṽ E ﭫ Ä
1
（四）贸易政策的影响
ẽ Ể ṧ ₳ Ŀ ᶓ Ȃ ẽ Yq Ŀꜛ
ȅ ҭ Ӽ Ɒ Ḁ ̑ĿͲ ῇ ᴉ Ȧ ϐ ʨ ϣ Ձ ﯴ
1
ڛ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ ػ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ Պ
Ĺ S ᵴ Պĺ Ӽ Ä ἥ ۫Ῡ Ŀڒ ʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ɭ ₮ ϐ
խ Ŀ ᶿ Yq→0 Ɑ Ŀp→∞Ŀ ﭞ ĿͲ ῇ ᶧ ڒ ﮿ ẽ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ۼ Ễ խ Ɑ Ŀȓ Ȅ ᵴ ՊĹ S ᵴ Պĺ ػ ᵴ
ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ Ӽ Ä ڒ ᶓ Ŀ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ
ç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ Ä
Գ Ŀ ﻮ ᾱ ﯲ ﮿ Ŀᾱ Ả ɟ
̿ ϔ ՙ ѐ ֟ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ 7 ϻ Պ P
ҵ ػ ĺ Ŀѐ Ể ӓ ˌ Ä ڼ
̙ ɟ ꜛ ڛ ϻ Պ P ՟ Ӽ ﮝ ĿS ᵴ Պ D
ᵴ Պ ỹ Ä Կ ᶓ Ŀڒ ʁ ᴇ Ể ﯩ ӓ ˌ ﭫ E3
ễ Ŀ ᶓ Ȃ ẽ Yq Ŀꜛ ڛ ˣ S ᵴ Պ
2
ػ D ᵴ Պ Ӽ ⑨Ä ˣ ĿͲ ῇ ԍ ڛ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ ՊĹ S
ᵴ
Ɑ Ŀɟ ̿ꜛ ڛ ӓ ˌ ﭫ E ՟ ﮝ Ŀ﮿ ẽ
3
Պĺ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ ﯲ Ừ ӓ ˌ E ﭫ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ﮿ ͉Ŀ ʄ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ
ẽ ̿Ջ ﷺ Ŀԍ ̱Ŀﭞ Ɑ ̙ ɟ
Ả ṧ ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ä
1
ʴ E ﭫ Ä
2
ڒ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ػ H ﭫ ả Ɑ Ŀ ̙
ѐ ֟̐Ƿ p Կ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ Ể ̐Ƿ pĿ
ﭞ Ŀʁ ᴇ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ᶃ ѐ ֟ ﮁ Ŀﭞ Ɑ ʁ
ﭡ Ŀڼ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ٬ Ŀ ̙ ѐ ֟ ɟ
ե ̫ ﭿ Ḡ ᶃ Ջ ۢ ճ ʂ Ä ҵ Ŀ ڼ ѐ ֟
ᴇ Ể ̿ Ṽ ӓ ˌ E Ä ƺ ӓ ˌ ﭬ ﯱ
̙ ɟ ﮿ ͉̿ E ﭫ Ŀڼ ﮿ ẽ
3
3
₸ Ŀ ӓ ˌ ̐Ƿ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ pĿʁ ᴇ
ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ Ӽ Ŀڏ ﭞ Ɑ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ȓ Ȅ ᴉ Ṱ
Ӽ ẽ ˹ Ĺ nĺ ᵹ Ӑ ɒ ڰ ᷃Ĺ fĺ ʴ
֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ä ݥ Ŀ ʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
ѐ
ᶬ ᶓ Չ Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ ᶬ E ﭫ Ӑ ڰ Ŀ ڙ ɟ ե ̫
3
⑩
ꜛ ڛ ϻ Պ P ﮿ ͉ E ﭫ Ɑ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ể Ӽ ﮿ ɟ
2
Ĺ Yqĺ ϐ խ Ŀﺿ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ĿӼ ẽ Չ
Ṵ ճ ̿ ꜛ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ỹ ࢩ ḕ Ŀﺿ Ӽ Ɒ Ŀ
˹ ẽ ᶛ ʁ ᴇ ̙
Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ү ϻ ʴ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ̐Ƿ ̿ Ṽ E ﭫ Ä
1
ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ŀԍ ̱Ŀ E ₸ ڰ
ڒ ᶓ Ŀᾱ Ả ԍ ڼ ﮿ ẽ ⱥ
ڰ Ŀﭞ Ɑ ɟ Ả ̿ƻ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
Ể ̐Ƿ qĿ Ϣ ʂ ₸ Ŀq ̇̿ ʁ ᴇ
̙ ࢥ ᵭ ᵴ ՊĹ D ᵴ Պĺ ՟ Ӽ ﮝ Ŀ Ɑ ȓ Ȅ ᵴ
ՊĹ S ᵴ Պĺ ỹ Ŀټ ﯲ Ɒ ԍ Ӱ ڙ Ŀԗ ό
ѱ ﯩ E ₸ E Ŀ ڼ ʁ ᴇ ᾱ
3
ӓ ˌ Ä
ڒ ᶓ Ŀ H ﭫ ả ƴ Ѣ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ڰ
̐ὲ ̙ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ pĿﭞ Ɑ ĿӼ ﮿ ẽ ̙
ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ éճ ̿ ꜛ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ Ӽ Ŀ
﮿ ẽ ḕ ԍ ʄ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ꜛ
̙ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ࢩ ﮿ ͉Ŀᶿ ﭞ ۢƩ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ể ӓ ˌ
1
3
Ả ӓ ṧ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ĺ E ﭫ ʴ E3
1
̿ﭲ ڙ E ﭫ Ä ڏ ₸ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ࢩ Ӽ
ﭫ ӓ ՟ ﮝ ĺ Ä Ŀڒ D ᵴ Պ ՟ Ӽ ﮝ ꜛ
2
̿ ⱽ Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ Ŀѐ ̙
ӓ ˌ ټ E ﭫ H ﭫ Ɑ ĿӼ ﮿ ẽ ̙
3
ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ ѐ ﮿ ͉Ŀ ꜛ ڛ ﮿ ẽ
ɟ Ṵ ճ ̿ﭿ Ḡ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ḕ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ẽ
ࢩ ḕ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀӓ ˌ E ڰ Ä
Ӽ ẽ ̐Ƿ ̿ Ṽ ӓ ˌ ػ E ﭫ Ä
2
1
꞉ Ӽ Ŀ E ﭫ Ŀʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ
2
四、出口附加值率：方法、
数据与结果
̙ ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ խ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ĺ pĺ Ŀʁ ᴇ ﮿
ẽ ẽ Ĺ Yqĺ ﭲ ڙ Ἅ Ϩ Ŀ Ӽ ẽ ɭ ₮
Ȧ څ Ŀꜛ ڛ ʁ ᴇ ̙ ȓ Ȅ ̐Ƿ Ӥ ꜞ ﮿
ẽ ࢥ ᵭ ̐Ƿ Ĺ S ᵴ Պ ټ Ӽ D ᵴ Պ Ջ ͏ĺ Ŀ
Ͳ ῇ Ӱ ڙ Ŀ ʁ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ç ﯧ éɟ Ả
﮿ ڛ ẛ ࣸ Ŀݥ ү ֟ẽ Ȥ Ừ ѱ Ṧ ẛ
- 18 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
表
̙ BEC ᾋ
1 BEC对中间品的定义
´ Կ ʄ ử Ŀڏ ₸ Ŀ ﻮ ᾱ Ջ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ
ƴ ̇Ὠ ₸ Ƅ ᾱ ḕ Ӽ ᴅ ů ڼ ʲ
ʑ
ﬖ
111
121
21
Ⱳ
Ⱳ
ʴ
ʴ
ἃ ĿҮ Ŀ Ȏ
ἃ Ŀ̇Ȏ Ŀ Ȏ
ﭳ ﻃ Ŀ̿ ϔ Ӑ ڰ ẛ Ջ ɟ ẽ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ Ӽ Ⱬ
ử ڸ Ä ﭞ Ŀ ϛ ̿ѐ ȫ ȃ ﯴ ﹽ ᾱ ۫ꜟ ү
֟ƴ ̇ ϻ Ä
ؘἥ ɰ Ṍ Ȏ ĿҮ
ؘἥ ɰ Ṍ Ȏ
ᶔ ἃ ʴ ₳ ĿҮ
22
Ŀ̇Ȏ
31
322
42
ᶔ ἃ ʴ ₳ Ŀ̇ȎĹ Ḕ ĺ
ỻ Ĺ ⱥ Һ ĺ Ἑ ؎ ̴
ⱥ Ἑ ؎ ̴
（一）方法
Hummels Ĺ 2001ĺ ү ﭐ Ĺ Vertical Spe⁃
cializationĺ Ƽ ᴛ ճ ڸ ẏ ẛ Ȃ ʁ ̆ ᵲ ʄ ᾱ
̣ ᶃ ᵬ ẽ Ṿ ү Ջ ڼ ț Ղ Ä ȅ ҭ Hummels
Ĺ 2001ĺ ڰ Ŀԍ ڛ ᶿ ﮿ ȫ ȕ ꜟ Ţ
53
᷃ ẽ ү Ἧẏ Ä Ŀﹽ ̇ Ȏ ᾱ
ﻮ ᾱ HS ᾋ ѐ ү ֟ ҭ Ḡ
ʁ ʈ ɟ ᾱ ؈ ҭ ֨Ĺ CCTSĿChina Cus⁃
toms Trade Statisticsĺ Ä ȅ ҭ BEC HS ڼ
ĿͲ ῇ ԍ ꞊ ڛ ѐ ֟ ̙
ҭ Ä Ừ ι Ȃ ﯴ ᾱ ҭ Ɑ ĿͲ
ῇ ̿ HS ᾋ ѐ ү ֟ ҭ ﺿ HS I/O
ڼ Գ ɰ ڙ Ⅱ Ṍ ῄ Ŀᶓ ˣ ȅ
ҭ ᷃ẽ ү ῄ Ṍ ﮁ ᾋ ɟ ﹺ ̿ Ⅱ
Ṍ ῄ ̇ ڙ Ⅰ Ṍ Ä
VS
X
,VS= çæ X ÷ö⋅M I
VSS=
èY ø
Ӽ ꜟ ĿM ѐ ֟ ̙ ̐ ĿY ڼ ẽ ү ̐ ĿX
I
ү ֟ẽ ̐ Ä VS ֑ ẛ ү ֟ ȥ ̙ ̐ Ŀ
VSS ꞈ ﮄ ػ ү ֟ ʁ ƴ ̇ ﯣ Ŀ1-VSS ڼ
ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ä
ẛ ȫ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʴ ﻮ ᾱ ү ֟ƴ ̇ Ὠ ĿͲ ῇ
Գ ࢥ ꞊ ѐ ֟ ̙ Ä ̇Ȏ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ﮿ Ŀ ѐ
֟ ἃ ӓ ڜ ̇Ȏ ѐ ֟₢ ﮿ Ŀ ﺿ ɭ ڰ ῄ ү ֟ẽ
ẽ Ŀ ᴉ ʁ ᴇ ἃ Ä ڒ ̇Ȏ Ừ
ﻶ Ừ Ừ ˣ Ŀ յ ẽ ڵ ү ֟Ŀݥ ү ֟Ɑ ڜ
ʈ ɟ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ᾱ ₮ ꜟ Ä ﭞ Ŀڼ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ٬ Ŀ
ڼ ѐ ֟ ̙ ԍ ʄ ᾱ ₮ ﯱ ѐ ﯴ ꞊ Ä
ﯴ ̙ ᷃ẽ ү Ἧẏ ɟ ﹺ
ʄ ᷃ ẽ ү ᴉ ڛ Ŀ ʁ ᷃
ẽ ү Ѐ Չ 2 ʴ 7 ᴗ Ŀ
҂ Ԁ ắ Ɑ ﭫ Ѣ ݥ ԍ ᷃ẽ
ү 2007 ᴗ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀ ڼ ʁ ү ֟
ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ȫ 2007 ᴗ ﮁ
Ä ȃ ﯴ ẽ ү ҭ Ḡ ì ʁ ᷃ ẽ ү
îĹ 2007ĺ Ä ݥ ĿԀ ὥ ڙ ʁ ڼ ᾱ
ﮝ Ĺ ₸ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ĺ ڢ ﯧ ẽ
Ŀ I/O ῄ ﮁ
ᾋ ۤ ₸
ڼ ﻮ ᾱ ٬ Ŀѐ ֟ ̙ ꞊ ࢥ ṧ Ṵ
ʶ ʁ Ĺ UNSDĿ2003ĺ ڰ ɪ ѱ Ṍ Ĺ Classifica⁃
tion by Broad Economic Categories ĿBECĺ Ä ȅ ҭ Ṍ Ŀ
HS ᾋ ѐ ֟ ڵ ԍ څ Ţ Ĺ capital
goodsĺ ~ ̙ Ĺ intermediate goodsĺ ʴ թ Ĺ consumption
goodsĺ Ṍ Ŀ ̙ BEC ᾋ ʑ ԍ ̣̱ 1Ä ﺿ
BEC ڼ ̙ ɰ Ṍ ۫ۖĿͲ ῇ ԍ HS ᾋ ѐ ֟ ҭ
ڼ ̙ ѐ ﯴ Ȃ ꞊ Ŀ ڛ ڙ HS ᾋ ﯲ ꜟ ﻮ ү
06~22ĿȜ Ᵽ 81 Ȃ Ⅱ Ṍ
ῄ Ä
（三）结果
ȅ ҭ ȫ Ϣ ʂ Ĺ ̱
9ĺ ĿͲ ῇ
֟ ʑ ѐ ֟ ̙
Ä
﮿ Ձ Ä Գ Ŀټ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ̇Ȏ
ᾱ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ֺ ﻮ ᾱ Ä
ṩ ᶿ Ŀ ᶓç ϱ éʴ ç ˸ ̇Ȏ ̆
ҵ é ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ ṩ
꞊ ẛ ʈ ɟ ᾱ ҭ ѐ ֟ ̙ ˣ ĿͲ ῇ
ࢥ ̿ HS ᾋ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ҭ ﺿ ﯴ ᾋ
ѐ ﯴ ɰ Ṍ Ä ṛ Ͳ ῇ ꜛ ẛ ç ʈ ɟ ؈ ӏ Ṍ ᷃ẽ
ү ῄ Ṍ ڼ éĹ HS -I/O concordance tableĺ Ŀ Ȃ
؎ ʄ ử ᶿ 8 ꞈ Ä
ﭲ ڙ
92.89% ʴ 92.83% Ŀڏ ̇Ȏ ᾱ
BEC
HS ᾋ ᾱ ҭ
HS ᾋ ̙
ѐ ֟ ҭ
̇Ȏ ᾱ
（二）数据
HS -I/O ڼ
HS -I/O ڼ
ȫ ү ֟ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ә
ҭ Ḕ Ţﺿ ᾱ ۫ꜟ ﹽ ѐ ү ֟ ~ѐ
֟ ̙ ̐ ~ȃ ﯴ ẽ ү ﯴ ̙
I/O Ⅱ Ṍ ῄ ѐ ү ֟ ҭ ̙
ѐ ֟ ҭ
图8进口中间品识别及 HS数据向 I/O部门行业的匹配过程
- 19 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
ﯴ Ŀ Ɑ ₸ Ѣ ᴗ Ḡ ʁ ү ֟ḕ
ﯴ Ä ̇ Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ǥ
50% ﯴ 5 Ȃ Ŀᶃ ̨
ﮄ ḹ ﮝ ῟ ﯴ Ŀ ڼ ү ֟ Ѐ
ڒ ᴗ ү ֟ ɭ ₮ 26.31% Ä ﭞ
Ŀ ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ǥ 5
څ ﯴ Ŀ ү ֟ Ѐ 2007 ᴗ ʁ
ү ֟ ﯣ 17.95%Ä ´ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟
ᾱ Ἧẏ ễ ڛ ᶃ ᵬ ﭐ
Ȏ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ ₸ ﭐ ﯱ
ẽ ᴇ ᾱ ǥ ڸ ҵ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ Ŀ
₮ ꜟ ʁ ᴇ ϐ ȓ ẛ
Ä
五、总结及评注
图9加工出口与一般出口的国内附加值率及各部门的出口占比
ɟ Ṵ ẽ ﭐ Ȏ ṙ ό Ḁ ̑
Ĺ 1-VSSp ĺ Ѐ 55.60%ʴ 57.26%Ä ȫ Ϣ ʂ
´ Ŀ ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ǥ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ
̇ Ὠ Ä Ԁ ὥ ڙ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ү ֟ᾱ Ѣ ﻶ
ﯣ Ŀᶿ ﭞ Ḡ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ ̿ ʁ ᴇ
ῄ ﭐ ϻ ǥ Ä ﭞ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟
ﻮ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ӽ Ձ ү Ҵ څ ằ Ҷ ´ Ŀƻ ǵ Ӥ
Ḡ Ŀ ₸ 20 90 ᴗ ﮁ Ḡ Ŀ ḡ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ̣ ᶃ ᵬ ﭐ
Ȏ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ؘᶛ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ ﯣ ڛ
Ŀ ʁ ᶲ ᷃ᶃ ᵬ ѱ ử ڸ Ջ ڼ ϐç éÄ
﮿ Ŀ ҂ ẛ ʁ ᾱ Ả ᶿ ʵ ՙ ẛ ʁ
ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ Ŀ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ
ͫ ȫ ẛ ̇ Ȏ ᾱ ʴ ﻮ ᾱ ү ֟ ̐
Ȥ Ừ Ŀ ۢ ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ⱬ ử ڸ Ä
Ԁ ắ ᾱ Ả ڼ ʁ ᴇ ẽ
ՙ
Ŀ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ
Ә Ӽ Ŀѐ ̎ڰ ﮿ ẽ ﯩ ᶃ
Ể ĿӼ ẽ ₴ ǀ Cournot ɗ
ᴇ Ӑ ڰ Ŀ ݥ Ӽ ẽ ̙ ﮿
ﭡ Ŀټ ȃ ﯴ ῟ ڸ ϐ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ ῟
ʴ Ʃ ﯴ Ŀ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Կ ḹ ﮝ
῟ ﯱ ﯴ Ä Ŀç ͏ ⱥ é~ç ﬗⱥ ~
ⱥ é~ç ẞ ̇Ȏ ~Ẇ ͍ ʲ ᶔ ἃ ̇
Ȏ éʴ ç ϱ Ẇ ࣹ ̇Ȏ é ﯴ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ
Ŀڼ ʁ ᴇ ̇ Ȏ ү ֟ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ѐ 14.60% ~
15.30% ~21.45% ʴ 22.38% Ä ٬ Ŀ ῟ ʴ Ʃ ﯴ
ү ֟ ẽ ʁ ᴇ ﯴ ꜛ ẛ Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ֟ ̙
Ŀټ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ջ ڼ ϐ Ä ﭞ Ŀѥ ɣ Ͳ ῇ ԍ ɢ
ắ ڙ ʁ Ʃ ẽ ү ֟ ̨ﮄ ẽ ү ֟Ŀ
ڏ յ Ʃ ү ֟ ʑ ʁ Ừ ᶌ ǥ
ˣ Ä ؚ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ Ḡ Ʃ ẽ ₸ ʁ ̣
Ḡ ﭐ Ȏ Ϣ ʂ Ä
ẽ ӓ ԍ ᾱ Ä ﭞ Ŀѐ ֟
̙ ̐ Ƿ ʁ ᴇ Ӽ ẽ ⱥ ڰ ẛ ̐ Ƿ
Ӽ Չ Ä ̙ ẽ ҵ ϐ
ç ﯸ é Ŀ ᶿ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ
ʴ ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ éճ Ŀ ₸ ﮿ ẽ
ɭ ₮ ḕ ̿ ṧ Ӽ ẽ ࢥ ᵭ ễ Ŀˣ
₸ Ӽ ẽ ɭ ₮ ḕ ̿ Ȉ
̙ ̐Ƿ Ŀѐ ꜛ ﮿ ẽ Äç
ﯸ éʴ ȃ ᾱ Ả ̿ ﮧ Ể ӓ
ˌ Ŀ ݥ Ŀ Ể ӓ ˌ Ḅ ڼ ẽ ү
ϻ ᾱ Ả Ä
ﮧ Ể ӓ ˌ Ŀǥ ẽ ү ӓ ˌ
ϻ ڼ ϐ ﮧ Ӽ Ŀ Ể ꜛ ڛ
ʁ ᴇ ̙ ̐ Ƿ ѐ ֟ ̐ Ƿ Ä ẽ
ү Ể ӓ ˌ Կ Ŀ ̙ Ể ̐
Ƿ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ ĿӼ ẽ ʄ ǥ ̐Ƿ
ڢ Ŀ Ԁ ắ ᶃ ﯴ Ŀ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ
ƴ ̇ Ὠ ᶃ ﯴ ӓ 8 Ȃ Ŀ ү ֟ ү ֟
ﯣ 66.61% Ä ڒ ﯴ ᶃ ῟ Ʃ
- 20 -
《管理世界》(月刊)
2012年第 12期
ʁ ̣ Ḡ ﭐ Ȏ Ϣ ʂ Ä
ẛ ﮿ ẽ ẽ Ừ Ӽ ~ẽ ү ϻ Ջ ﮿
͉Ä ݥ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ʄ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ꜛ ڛ Ӽ
ẽ ẽ ڛ ԗ ṧ ԍ Ä
ڢ Ŀ Ԁ ắ ᶃ Ŀ ῟
Ʃ ﯴ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ´ Կ Ŀ
₸ Ѣ ᴗ Ḡ ḕ ࣸ ç ﬗⱥ ~
ⱥ éĿ ڼ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
Ὠ 16%Ŀ Ӽç ǥ é ﯴ ʁ ᴇ
ƴ ̇ ț Ղ ࣷ ү ֟ ễ Ä
Ͳ ῇ ҂ ѐ Ձ Ŀ ڼ Ӽ ẽ ᾱ
Ả ̿ ʁ ᴇ ѱ Ո ᷃ ẽ ү ӓ ˌ ϻ Ŀ
͉ Ӽ ẽ ẽ ̙ ѐ ֟ɟ ϻ ԍ
ﭵ ȿ ẽ ү Ể ӓ ˌ Ä ₸ Ŀɟ
﮿ ͉ ṧ ﮿ ẽ ɭ ₮ ḕ Ŀç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ
̿ⱽ Ȉ ﮧ ̙ ẽ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ Ŀ
ﭞ Ɑ Ŀ ̙ ̿ꜛ ڛ Ӽ ẽ ̙
̐Ƿ ѐ ֟̐Ƿ Ŀ ﭞ Ŀ﮿ ẽ ç Ừ ɟ Ṵ é
ճ ﮿ ѐ ḕ Ä ᶿ ﭞ Ʃ Ŀ ᾱ
Ả ﮿ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ڛ ỹ ࢩ Ä ؚ Ŀ ᾱ
ʴ թ Һ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ̙ ɟ ằ
ṧ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ﻥ ݯ ẽ ү ӓ ˌ ϻ Ŀç Ừ ɟ Ṵ é
ճ ʴ ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ꜛ ڛ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ̹՟ ǥ
ẽ ү ӓ ˌ ϻ Ṽ Ä
ˣ ĿͲ ῇ Ֆ ү ₸ Ŀç ﯧ éᾱ Ả ₸ ϣ
ʁ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ࣸ ḕ Ә Ä ʄ ᾱ
₮ ꜟ ﮿ ү ֟̐ Ȥ Ừ ȫ Ŀ ڼ ṙ ϣ ƻ ǵ Ӥ
Ḡ ʁ ү ֟ḕ Ŀꜘ ټ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ ͫᶧ
꞊
ʁ ᴇ ẽ Ⱬ ӓ ̐ Ä ễ ؞ Ḡ FDI ʴ ̇
Ȏ ᾱ Ừ ʁ ѱ Ȃ ڰ ₮
ꜟ Ŀ Ȃ ₮ ꜟ ꜛ ڛ ʁ ࣸ ᶲ ᷃ᶃ ᵬ ѱ ڛ ẛ
Ҵ څ ﭐ Ȏ ṧ Ä ̮ ̇Ȏ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
Ὠ ᶓ ϐ Ŀ ʁ ᴇ ẽ ᶃ ᵬ ̐ Ṿ
ػ ĿͲ ῇ Ѐ ࢥ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ
՟ ɟ Ṵ Ŀ ݥ ⱥ Ȉ ἡ ᾱ Ả
ѐ ﻮ ү ֟ẽ Ϣ Ȥ Ä
ṙ ό ҂ ´ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ ç ﯧ é
ᾱ Ả ₸ ﯲ Ừ ʁ Ձ Ϙ ç ﯧ éᾱ Ϣ Ȥ
Äç ﯧ éɟ Ả ѐ ʁ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ࣸ
ḕ Ɑ Ŀ ڰ ử ڸ Ӽ ẛ ʁ ᴇ Ջ ɟ ẽ
Ä ᾱ թ Һ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ﻮ ᾱ
̙ ɟ ằ Ѐ ͉ ̙ ꜛ Ừ Ŀ
ѐ ѐ ﮿ ẽ Ŀ ݥ ĿӼ ﮿ ẽ ̙
ç ࢥ ᵭ ɟ Ṵ éճ ᴉ ﭿ Ḡ Ӽ ẽ ỹ ࢩ ḕ Ä
ټ ү ֟ƴ ̇ ȫ Ϣ ʂ Ձ Ţ Գ Ŀ̇Ȏ ᾱ
ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ ֺ ﻮ ᾱ Ŀẍ ү ֟
ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ӽ Ձ ү Ҵ څ ằ Ҷ ´ Ŀƻ ǵ Ӥ
Ḡ Ŀ ₸ 20 90 ᴗ ﮁ Ḡ Ŀ ḡ ̇Ȏ ᾱ ̣
ᶃ ᵬ ﭐ Ȏ ᾱ ₮ ꜟ ؘᶛ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
ﯣ ڛ Ŀ ʁ ᶲ ᷃ᶃ ᵬ ѱ ử ڸ Ջ
ڼ ϐç éÄ
（作者单位：复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济
研究中心；责任编辑：蒋东生）
注释
①
Ṍ Ϣ ό ԍ ̣̱
Dunford 2006
ĺ Ä
Ĺ
②ڒ ᶓ Ŀټ ү ֟ ̐ ﯣ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀǥ Ԋ ẽ ʁ ᴇ ﯣ
ᶓ Ä ῒ ᶃ ᵬ iPhone ẽ ṩ Ŀ Ể ӓ ̐ 178.96
᾿
iPhone Ŀ Ḡ ʁ ƴ ̇ 6.5 ᾿ ĿЀ
3.6%Ĺ Xing and DetertĿ2010ĺ Ä
ᶃ ᵬ ẽ Ṿ ̐
③Һ ẛ ό ĿAssche ʴ GangnesĹ 2010ĺ
ʁ ﯴ ṩ ҂ Ձ Ŀƺ ﯴ ẽ Ѣ յ
ؘ ʄ ´ Կ Ä
ᴗ
④ ȃ HS ᾋ ӏ
ڼ RCA ҭ Ä
⑤Ԁ ὥ ڙ ̇᷃ ᾱ ڼ ʁ ѱ ՙ ĿͲ ῇ
Ԁ ắ ẛ 1994~2001 ᴗ ʴ 2001~2008 ᴗ ẍ Ȃ Ϙ RCAĿϢ
ʂ Ձ Ŀ᷃ ʁ ڼ ᾱ Ϣ Ȥ Ջ ˣ Ȉ ڰ Ŀ
´ Ͳ ῇ ɢ ắ ڙ ẽ Ϣ Ȥ څ ﮧ ʁ ᷃
ˣ
Ä
ﭡ Ŀټ ȃ ﯴ ῟ ڸ ϐ Ḡ Ӱ Ŀ
῟ ʴ Ʃ ﯴ Ŀ ү ֟ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇
Ὠ Կ ḹ ﮝ ῟ ﯱ ﯴ Ä ٬ Ŀ
῟ ﯱ ﯴ ү ֟ ẽ ʁ ᴇ ﯴ ꜛ
ẛ Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ֟ ̙ Ŀټ ʁ ᴇ ƴ ̇ Ὠ Ջ ڼ ϐ
Ä ﭞ ԍ Ŀѥ ɣ Ͳ ῇ ɢ ắ ڙ ʁ Ʃ
ẽ ү ֟ ̨ﮄ ẽ ү ֟Ŀڏ յ
Ʃ ү ֟ ʑ ʁ Ừ ᶌ ǥ ˣ
Ä ؚ Ŀ ʁ ү ֟ Ḡ Ʃ ẽ ₸
⑥
Һ Ӽ ﮿ ẽ ѱ ﮝ ؈ ڰ ẽ
Ä ɟ ̙ ԍ ̣ ̱ EthierĹ 1982ĺ ~ Faini
Ĺ 1984ĺ ~ Okuno-Fujiwara Ĺ 1988ĺ ~ RodrikĹ 1995ĺ ~ Venables
Ĺ 1996ĺ Rodríguez-ClareĹ 1996ĺ Ä
⑦ɟ Ṵ ẽ Ɒ Ḁ ̑ Rosenstein-Rodan
Ĺ 1943ĺ Ŀ ˣ Murphy Ĺ 1989ĺ ʴ MatsuyamaĹ 1994ĺ ѐ
Ä
⑧
Ӽ Ɒ ԍ Ŀp=Ĺ μYq+bĺ /nxĿᶵ ڛ ̙
ε=-1Ä
̐Ƿ
ࢥ ᵭ ﮌ ﯸ
⑨ ₴ ᶓ Ŀʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ Yq ˣ ᶦ
ʵ
ẏ ڵ ⱽ
1
Ȉ ﮧ ѐ ᷃Ӽ ẽ Ŀѐ ﯲ Ừ Ȉ ̙ ̐Ƿ Ŀټ
﮿ ẽ ࢩ ḕ Ŀᶿ ﭞ ۢ Ʃ Ŀʁ ᴇ ﮿ ẽ ẽ
- 21 -
贸易政策与产业发展：基于全球价值链视角的分析
中国对外经济关系论坛
Yq→∞Ŀ Կ ᶓ ẽ ᴇ Չ ꞉
⑩ҵ ̣̱₮ ﯱ Ä
Ä
economicsĿVol. 1Ĺ 1ĺ Ŀpp.1~25.
Ĺ 14ĺ MatsuyamaĿK.Ŀ1994Ŀç Complementarities and Cumula⁃
tive Processes in Models of Monopolistic Competition: A Sur⁃
veyé ĿDepartment of EconomicsĿNorthwestern UniversityĿEvan⁃
stonĿIL.
Ṍ ۫ۖ꞊ ѐ ֟ ̙ ҂ ԍ ̣̱ Dean
Ĺ 2007ĺ ~Dean Ĺ 2008ĺ Upward Ĺ 2010ĺ Ä
ҵ ̣̱ ì ʁ ᷃ẽ ү îĹ 2007ĺ Ä
Ͳ ῇ ḹ ﮝ á Ĺ ᶃ ټ ᶣ ᴗ ϻ ӓ ᶣ
Ĺ 15ĺ MudambiĿR.Ŀ2008Ŀç LocationĿControl and Innovation
in Knowledge-intensive IndustrieséĿJournal of Economic Geogra⁃
phyĿVol. 8Ŀpp.699~725.
ẽ ﯣ ĺ ῟ ﯱ ʴ
ḹ
ﮝ ῟ ﯱ Ĺ ѥ ɣ
I/O ῄ Ṍ Ձ ﯴ ʁ ῷ ѱ ﯴ Ṍ ὲ ᵲ Ŀڏ
I/O
ῄ II Ṍ ˃ ᶵ ʶ GB/T4754-2003 ﯧ
ػ
Ĺ 16ĺ MurphyĿK.ĿA. Shleifer and R. VishnyĿ1989Ŀç Industri⁃
alization and Big Pushé ĿJournal of Political EconomyĿVol. 97Ŀ
pp.1003~1026.
ﯴ Ṍ Ŀ ҕ ԍ ڼ ڛ ʴ
ḹ
ﮝ ҭ ĺ Ä ﯴ
῟ ڸ ᵲ ̣̱ OECDŢANBERD and STAN databas⁃
esĿMayĿ2003Ä
Ĺ 17ĺ NaughtonĿBarryĿ2007Ŀç Chinaås State SectorĿIndustri⁃
al Policies and the 11th Five Year Plané ĿTestimony before the
US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing
on theç Extent of Government Control of Chinaå s Economy and
Implication for the USéĿMay 24.
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- 22 -
